The Buffalo Bills hoped Keon Coleman would firmly establish himself as the new go-to wide receiver after selecting him with the first pick of the second round in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Coleman flashed plenty of playmaking ability his rookie year, but didn’t exactly replace the Pro Bowl production the organization got from Stefon Diggs over the previous four seasons.
This makes the opinions on Coleman’s outlook entering the 2025 NFL season extremely polarizing.
The Case for Keon Coleman Having a Breakout Year in 2025
Keon Coleman produced 29 receptions for 556 yards and four scores over his 13 games played in 2024.
When looking at his profile optimistically, one could construct a case that Coleman is on the verge of a breakout year in 2025. One of those who believe better days are ahead for the FSU product is Bradley Locker from Pro Football Focus, who recently predicted him to the All-Breakout Team entering this season.
Locker wrote, “Coleman, the 33rd overall pick in 2024, amassed a 68.8 PFF receiving grade with 1.55 yards per route run in his inaugural season. Considering the Bills also traded for Amari Cooper in October, the fact that the former Florida State stud still finished second among Buffalo wideouts in targets is encouraging in and of itself.”
Coleman’s explosive playmaking was on full display in year one. Of all receivers who caught a minimum of 20 passes in 2024, Coleman ranked behind just Alec Pierce and Christian Watson at 19.2 yards per reception. This is a great mark for a rookie receiver who is paired with a big play artist like Josh Allen under center.
Coleman’s average depth of target (aDOT) was 15.2, which ranked inside the top 10 at the WR position. If he can manage to become more than an explosive play option in year two, we could be looking at a future star receiver.
When you take into consideration that Coleman didn’t really start focusing solely on the sport of football — played basketball during his collegiate days at Michigan State — until his move to FSU ahead of the 2023 college football season, which means there is reason to believe he could continue to improve.
Pairing an immensely talented prospect with a reigning MVP feels like a combination that could explode in 2025.
The Concerns That Surround Keon Coleman Entering His Second Season
The flashes of elite upside made appearances during Coleman’s rookie year, but the reason he feels like a bit of a question mark entering the 2025 NFL season were his issues with drops and creating separation.
Locker added, “Assuming Coleman can clean up his catch rate — his 13.5% drop rate was the eighth-highest among receivers with 50-plus targets — then his play should only improve. Coleman may not be a separating whiz, as he sat in the 0th percentile in separation rate and the second percentile against single coverage, but his abilities as a deep threat and with the ball in his hands should render him one of Josh Allen’s top targets.”
One of the biggest concerns about Coleman entering the NFL was his ability to create consistent separation with his route running. His 1.07 target separation rating over at PlayerProfiler.com has him ranked 103rd amongst WRs in that metric.
The team trading for veteran WR Amari Cooper at the trade deadline last season doesn’t exactly feel like a stamp of approval for Coleman, which is another reason why there is reason to be skeptical about Coleman emerging as the clear go-to option in this passing offense.
-1749826389-q80.webp "Houston Texans 2025 Worst-Case Scenario Revealed by CBS Sports")