Breaking down Connor McDavid’s contract comments, Trent Frederic, the Cup loss and more

The Edmonton Oilers don’t need a massive makeover. They are very close to winning. They lost, for the second consecutive season, to the Florida Panthers. The Panthers are a great team — this group was arguably better than that year’s — and that will be the Oilers’ goal this summer: to improve an already good roster.

Captain Connor McDavid outlined why the Panthers won. “Florida is a special group. They’ve got eight guys with 20+ points, their third line is +20, that’s unheard of. Their backend is big and fast and long and tough, and they have a world-class goaltender,” said McDavid.

Losing to Florida stings. The players, their families, the organization and Oilers’ fans feet the pain. It isn’t easy to lose once, never mind two years in a row, to the same team, but the Oilers don’t need to panic. They don’t need a massive overhaul. There will be tweaks, as there would have been even if they had won. The Panthers won last year, and they improved their team and that will be GM Stan Bowman’s goal, and his responsibility. Edmonton is extremely close to winning, and there will be no shortage of motivation for the players. But Bowman needs to improve the team.

From my seat, these are the areas he will change.

— A new goalie. I don’t see any proven #1 goalies being available. Jake Allen, Ilya Samsonov, Alex Lyon, Anton Forsberg, Vitek Vanecek and Dan Vladar are free agent options. I could see one of them in a tandem with Stuart Skinner.

— They need a right-shot defender, preferably one who can kill penalties, is mobile and a decent puck mover. Could they acquire one in a trade for Evander Kane or Viktor Arvidsson? I think both we will be on the trade block.

—They need a right-shot centre. Noah Philp will have a chance to compete for that spot, but they need someone to push him for it. Luke Kunin could be an option, depending on his AAV ask.

— Add another depth right defender.

The Oilers will be an attractive destination for players looking to compete for the Cup. Edmonton is a legitimate contender and some UFAs will take less to sign here.

NEWS AND NOTES…

— McDavid spoke today and, not surprisingly, didn’t give an update on his potential contract extension. McDavid was still trying to absorb the disappointment of losing the Stanley Cup for a second consecutive season.

“Three days ago, we were two games from winning. Last year, we were two shots away from winning. The belief is incredibly high in that room, and we do believe this group can win and will win. My message to the fans would be to keep being patient and keep believing because they’ve been through a lot. The emotional highs, the lows. I look at what these runs do to my family. It’s hard on them. Just like the fans. It will be worth it,” said McDavid.

He won’t just move on from the disappointment of losing. It is his only focus. But when I asked about his contract extension he said this:

“Winning is the most important thing. If I feel there’s a good window here to win, then signing is no problem. I’m sure we’ll get into it over the next couple of weeks, but I’m not in a rush. Some people will look at the July 1st date (as a time to sign), but there is no rush. I will do what is best for my family,” he said.

Some hear the last line and they panic. Leon Draisaitl said the exact same thing last year, because it is true. That is a factor, but I expect McDavid to remain with the Oilers. It is important to note Draisaitl didn’t sign his extension until September 3rd last summer. McDavid outlined he won’t rush into it. He will take some time to decompress. I think the one difference we could see between him and Draisaitl’s deal is the term. I won’t be surprised to see McDavid sign for five or six years. His agent prefers those deals, and with the cap going up so much, McDavid can sign another extension in five years and get another raise. I’d recommend not worrying about online claims this summer that McDavid won’t stay.

— I think Trent Frederic’s contract will come in around $3.8m AAV. An eight-year term isn’t the norm for a non-superstar player, but I see a good chance this becomes a value contract. Frederic wasn’t 100 percent in the playoffs.

“I’m not thrilled with how I played in the playoffs,” said Frederic this morning. “It (ankle) was a factor and it isn’t ideal jumping into the playoffs after being out that long. I know I can give more and I look forward to that. One of the things that makes me valuable is I can play left, right or centre.”

He also plays with an edge. I wouldn’t use the playoffs as the expectation for what he can do. He scored 17 and 18 goals in a third-line role. I believe he has more to give and if he plays on Draisaitl’s wing all year next season, I’m confident he will give them more offence than Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson did.

I’ve seen many mentioning the Oilers’ depth let them down in the playoffs. Each playoff series is a small sample size, and regression to the mean isn’t really a thing. All that matters is if you outscore the opposition. Shots or expected goals don’t win games. Goals do and in the playoffs they matter. Edmonton’s depth was quite good this year.