As the 2025 NFL season approaches, the Miami Dolphins find themselves in a pivotal position. Following an 8-9 record in 2024 and missing the playoffs, the Dolphins’ projected win total has been adjusted by major sportsbooks to 8.5 wins. This over/under line reflects both the team’s recent inconsistencies and the remaining optimism around their roster and coaching staff.
Betting Markets Set Dolphins’ Over/Under at 8.5 Wins
According to a survey of leading sportsbooks, the Dolphins are widely projected to finish around the .500 mark in 2025. Here’s how several major outlets have priced their regular-season win totals:
- FanDuel Sportsbook: Over 8.5 wins at +130; under 8.5 at -150
- BetMGM: Over 8.5 at +125; under 8.5 at -150
- ESPN BET: Over 8.5 at +125; under 8.5 at -145
- Sportsbook Review: Over 8.5 at +105; under 8.5 at -125
These odds suggest that while there is a realistic path to nine wins, the betting markets slightly favor the under, reflecting concerns about Miami’s ability to improve upon last season’s performance.
The 8.5 total marks a notable shift from 2024, when Miami opened the year with a win total of 10.5 but struggled late in the season, losing key games in December and falling out of the AFC playoff picture.
Key Factors Shaping the Dolphins’ 2025 Outlook
Several factors are influencing this cautious projection:
2024 Performance: Miami underachieved in 2024, finishing 8-9 and ending the year with questions surrounding both their consistency and resilience. Despite a decent start, they failed to close the season strong, dropping crucial games in the final stretch. Their inability to defeat top-tier opponents was a theme throughout the year.
Offensive Line Issues: A recurring concern for the Dolphins has been their offensive line play. The unit struggled to protect quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and create running lanes, leading to stalled drives and vulnerability to pressure-heavy defenses. Multiple analysts have cited the lack of depth and inconsistency up front as a major barrier to offensive success.
Tagovailoa’s Health: Tagovailoa remains at the center of the Dolphins’ fate. While he played most of the 2024 season, his previous concussion history continues to raise questions about long-term availability. Protecting him and limiting exposure to hits will be a top priority for head coach Mike McDaniel and the offensive staff.
Tough AFC East Competition: The AFC East is projected to be a much tougher division in 2025. The Buffalo Bills are expected to lead the pack with a projected win total of 11.5 to 13.5, depending on the sportsbook. The New York Jets and the New England Patriots are entering rebuilds with new head coaches, but remain capable opponents against the Dolphins.
Miami’s intra-division schedule, which includes six games against these three rivals, will go a long way in determining whether the team goes over or under their projected total. A 3–3 or better record within the AFC East will likely be necessary if the Dolphins aim to reach or exceed nine wins.
Path to the Over: Schedule, Defense, and Development
Though cautious, the 8.5 win total is not a ceiling. Miami has opportunities to hit the over if a few key areas trend in the right direction:
Favorable Matchups: Beyond the division, the Dolphins’ 2025 schedule includes a few matchups against rebuilding teams such as the Carolina Panthers. Winning those games is essential if the Dolphins are to reach nine or more wins.
Defensive Play: Despite some regression in late 2024, Miami’s defense potentially boasts some high-level talent. If the defensive unit can form quickly and get better play, particularly in third-down and red-zone efficiency, they could keep the Dolphins competitive in close games.
With three seasons under his belt, McDaniel’s offense is expected to operate with greater cohesion. Consistent play from players like wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back De’Von Achane could add more explosive dimensions to an already dangerous scheme.
While the projected win total of 8.5 reflects some skepticism, it also shows that the Dolphins are within striking distance of the playoffs — if they can address lingering issues and maintain a healthy roster. The line invites a critical question for fans and bettors alike: Will Miami rise to the challenge in 2025, or fall just short once again?
