With about two minutes remaining in the 2024 AFC Championship game, the Buffalo Bills trailed the Kansas City Chiefs by three points. On fourth down, the Bills needed five yards to keep their drive, and their season, going.
Quarterback Josh Allen, who would later be named the NFL MVP, dropped back and threw over the middle to his one open receiver — second year tight end Dalton Kincaid, the Bills’ first-round draft pick in 2023. The pass was a little low, but on target. The ball went right into Kincaid’s arms.
And he dropped the ball.
DALTON KINCAID WITH THE BIGGEST DROP OF HIS LIFE…
Just like that, the Bills season was over, and with it what appeared to be a golden opportunity for the franchise to reach its first Super Bowl since 1993.
Allen Blames Self For Lack of Connection With Kincaid
Kincaid was despondent over the dropped pass, and his teammates, led by Allen, came to his defense. The three-tim Pro Bowl quarterback blamed himself for the missed connection.
“He can sit there and think about that play over and over, but I got to be better for him,” Allen said, as quoted by ESPN. “That’s what it comes down to, and get him more involved.”
Allen was on to something. Numbers show that Allen and the 25-year-old tight end out of Utah were simply out of sync all season — a problem the Bills must solve in 2025, as Kincaid enters the third season of his four-year, $13.4 million rookie contract.
“I didn’t feel like I put him in enough good situations this year, ball-placement-wise,” Allen added.
Here is my view of Kincaid’s 4th down drop. He is much more open than shown on the telecast and the worst part is he didn’t adjust literally at all. I am sick.
The seven-year veteran — who was himself the Bills first-round draft pick, seventh overall, in 2018 — was correct.
“According to Fantasy Points, only 69 percent of Kincaid’s 81 targets were deemed catchable passes, and on Allen’s attempts of 10 or more air yards downfield, only 37 percent were deemed catchable,” wrote Sal Maiorana of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle. “That’s brutal, plain and simple. For whatever reason, Allen and Kincaid just couldn’t get on the same page.”
QB and Receiver Must Make Adjustments in 2025
According to NFL analyst Joe Marino of the Locked on Bills podcast, the rate of uncatchable targets between Allen and Kincaid was the highest the NFL.
What can the Bills do about it? According to Marino, the problem may simply be one of adjustments that were met made in 2024, but cold and should be in 2025.
“You’re still developing chemistry with a lot of different players and maybe you take for granted that Kincaid was an established player, but still a young guy that you needed to evolve with,” Marino said on the Thursday Locked on podcast. “And so I think the overall turnover at the skill positions didn’t help.”
Marino also pointed out that Kincaid was drafted into an offensive system managed by then-coordinator Ken Dorsey, but Dorsey was fired 10 games into the tight end’s rookie season with the Bills stuck at 5-5 and the offense plagued by turnovers.
The Bills promoted quarterbacks-coach Joe Brady to the OC position, and kept him in place through the 2024 season.
“I think there’s something to be said there. Right there is an acclamation and adjustment for everyone,” Marino noted.
Brady remains the offensive coordinator into 2025, so presumably that “acclimation” will improve.
“Allen was right on the money regarding his season assessment of his connection with Kincaid,” Maiorana wrote in the wake of the Bills stunning AFC Championship defeat. “It was not good, both players share the blame in their lack of chemistry, and it’s something that has to be fixed for the 2025 season.”
