After watching the Buffalo Bills play football over the past few games (and specifically in their Week 13 drubbing of the San Francisco 49ers), it’s difficult to imagine that there’s a better team in the AFC than the club that just clinched its division through 13 weeks.
And though Buffalo has long looked like the conference’s best team, its path to the No. 1 seed in the AFC has long been hindered by the Kansas City Chiefs, as the back-to-back Super Bowl champions got off to a 9-0 start this season. The Bills secured the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs with their Week 11 victory over the recent dynasty, and though Kansas City still sits atop the AFC after Week 13 with an 11-1 record, it looks as though the tide is firmly shifting in Buffalo’s favor with regard to the conference’s top seed.
The New York Times has updated its 2024 NFL playoff projections following Week 13, with the outlet now giving the Bills a 51% chance to finish the campaign as the No. 1 seed in the AFC and earn a first-round postseason bye (odds as of the morning of December 2). The shift in percentages comes after Buffalo’s three-score thrashing of the 49ers, a 35-10 win that allowed the Bills to secure their fifth-straight division title.
Buffalo is winning games in dominant fashion, having totaled 30 points in six consecutive games. Kansas City, conversely, has eked to its (admittedly impressive) 11-1 record, as nine of its 11 wins have come within one score. The Chiefs are coming off back-to-back nailbiters over the lowly Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders, with its most recent win coming thanks to an errant Vegas snap to close the game.
The Bills are simply playing better football than Kansas City at this juncture despite the Chiefs’ stronger record, which is why Buffalo being the (slight) favorite to ultimately finish atop the AFC is not all that surprising. NYT believes Kansas City has a 45% chance to earn a first-round bye and a 10% chance of reaching the Super Bowl; the Bills, meanwhile, have a 19% chance of representing the AFC in the ‘big game.’
One shouldn’t go about crowning Buffalo just yet, as it doesn’t control its own destiny; it needs to continue winning its games while crossing its fingers that the Chiefs drop one along the way. The Bills’ remaining opponents include the Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, and New York Jets, while Kansas City must face off against teams like the Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Denver Broncos to close the year.
Buffalo will tell you that it’s only focused on what it can control and that it’s not necessarily focused on postseason seeding, but it looks as though the team is in prime position to finish atop the AFC standings for the first time since 1993.
