RENTON, Wash. - Any time an NFL team slogs through a long losing streak or drops five out of six games as the Seattle Seahawks have since late September, the backup quarterback inevitably becomes one of the most popular players on the roster.
Not surprisingly, after Smith threw three interceptions, including a back-breaking pick six inside the opposing 10-yard line, in a 26-20 overtime loss to the Rams on Sunday, calls for Sam Howell to get a shot under center have only gotten louder in the Pacific Northwest. If there was a time to pull that lever and the organization felt it would give them a shot in the arm, with the Seahawks entering their bye week, now would be the ideal time to make a switch.
But for fans believing Howell would step under center and suddenly rid Seattle's offense of the problems that have plagued the unit through nine games, it's time to stop living in a fantasy world. The symptoms that have led to Smith's inconsistent play aren't going to magically disappear by switching quarterbacks, and in fact, past precedent suggests those symptoms would only be magnified by such a change.
In terms of raw numbers, Smith has only thrown 11 touchdown passes while being tied for the league lead in interceptions (10). Some of that has to do with the fact he has thrown more passes (342) than any quarterback by a wide margin in a one-dimensional offense, but more than anything, being under persistent siege behind a terrible offensive line has left him with one hand tied behind his back much of the time trying to turn trash into 24 karat gold.
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Smith has been pressured on more drop backs than any other quarterback (147), but that number only tells part of the story. According to Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy, the veteran quarterback has had to deal with 93 pressures that were originally charted as blocked and still turned into pressures in under 2.5 seconds. In other words, the offensive line has identified who to block properly in those situations and simply can't protect him.
"We've got to do a better job of taking care of Geno throughout the course of the game," coach Mike Macdonald said on Monday. "We have to be more efficient on those early downs so teams aren't teeing off on us on second long. And, it's hard. Now in those situations we do have, at the end of the day, we've got to be ball dominant. We can't put the ball in harm's way. Geno knows that. I know that's why he's really hard on himself right now. But, it is more of a reflection of us as a football team than just Geno when the quarterback's getting hit. So we've got to do a better job."
As would be the case for any quarterback, Smith's numbers have taken a significant dive under the weight of all those quick pressures. According to Pro Football Focus charting, he ranks 13th in completion rate (49.2 percent), 26th in passer rating (49.5), fifth in turnover-worthy plays (seven), and first in interceptions (nine) when pressured. Through it all, he ranks 17th in sack to pressure ratio (18.3 percent), a testament to his ability to maneuver the pocket and extend plays.
But when Smith has had a clean pocket, few quarterbacks have been better this season. He currently ranks third in completion rate (78.1), second in big time throws (11), seventh in yards per attempt (8.4), and 10th in passer rating (108.6) on 233 clean drop backs without pressure. He's managed to do that while still ranking 24th in time to throw (3.25 seconds) on those plays.
A strong argument can be made that Smith has dealt with more misfortune this season than most quarterbacks as well with several of his 10 interceptions not being his fault.
Starting in Seattle's season opener versus Denver, thanks again to shaky protection, Smith took a shot below the knees on the team's opening drive, leading to his pass falling well short of the intended target for an interception. Fast forwarding to Week 3 against Miami, he had a pass tipped at the line by Calais Campbell and it fell into the hands of Zach Sieler for a pick.
In just two additional examples of bad luck biting Smith, receiver DK Metcalf admitted he ran the wrong route in the second half against the 49ers in Week 6, allowing the cornerback to undercut the throw as he drifted downfield on a crosser. Last Sunday, while his second pick was a questionable decision that backfired into a 106-yard touchdown return, his first interception bounced off Jaxon Smith-Njigba's hands and his third one came after tight end AJ Barner was clearly held by a defensive lineman.
Just on that count alone, it can be argued at least 50 percent of Smith's interceptions this season weren't his fault, if not more. PFF charting backs up that sentiment, as they have only charged him with 10 turnover-worthy plays for the entire season and a 2.3 percent turnover worthy play rate, which ranks 17th out of 26 qualified quarterbacks.
After opting not to make a last second deadline deal to bolster their offensive line, even with tackle Abraham Lucas potentially returning after the bye, the chances of pass protection dramatically improving from here on out seems slim to none. Putting Howell, who led the league in interceptions and took 65 sacks last year starting for the Commanders, behind that group would be waiving the white flag while rolling the dice on his development in an unideal environment.
In all actuality, Smith has willed Seattle to a 4-5 record by somehow putting up strong numbers in an offense that has been quite dysfunctional for most of the season for reasons beyond his control. Playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL without a reliable run game to complement him, he's had to shoulder the load under poor circumstances. The number of quarterbacks who could do better in the same environment likely can be counted on one hand.
Only one game out in the NFC West, it would be a horrific miscalculation by the Seahawks to bench Smith right now, and they would be taking the wrong lessons from a disappointing first half in doing so. Instead, with Macdonald saying "everything is on the table" for evaluation during the bye, personnel and scheme changes must be the focal point to provide more support for a quarterback who continues to be unfairly scrutinized and should be viewed as part of the solution, not the problem.
