The Chicago Bears are 4-4 entering their Week 10 matchup as 6.5-point home favorites against the 2-7 New England Patriots. The Patriots are in the first year of a complete rebuild. They've covered the spread in three of their nine games, pulling off upset victories against the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets. They haven't been favored in a game all season.
Bears On Tap talked through the recent Bears drama, the Patriots' roster, and how the Bears could attack them. The episode is available on YouTube, Apple, and Spotify. These concepts will be paramount to the Bears' ability to come away victorious on Sunday.
3. Bears Defense Must Take Away the Middle of the Field
The Patriots' weapons leave a lot to be desired. They don't have any outside receivers that truly scare opposing defenses. However, they have quality tight ends in Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. On top of that, they have a shifty slot receiver named Demario Douglas, who can juke a corner out of his shoes.
Kyler Gordon will be important if he gets back on the field. His fluid athleticism should be able to limit Douglas out of the slot.
Additionally, the Bears' linebackers and safeties will have to work together to take away the easy tight-end targets. Much of the Patriots' tight end success comes off play-action looks, so the Bears' linebackers have to keep their heads on a swivel in those situations.
2. Force the Patriots into True Dropback Situations
Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in predictable dropback situations. In predictable dropback situations, the impact of play-action is minimized. The defense can stack the coverage or bring extra heat without being as worried about the rushing attack. Defensive linemen can get on their horses and focus on getting upfield. How do you generate true dropback situations, though?
The "football guy" answer is to stop the run on early downs. With Andrew Billings headed to injured reserve, that becomes a more difficult task. Zacch Pickens will be called on to fill Billings' shoes.
If the Bears force the Patriots into second and long, that's the first step to reaching third and long. By stopping the run early in the game, the Bears can make the Patriots hesitant to run on early downs due to the risk of falling behind the sticks. Then, they can lean on their talented secondary and quality coverage backers to cover up the pass concepts from there.
1. Find Some Easy Buttons for Caleb Williams
It's painfully apparent that the Bears offense is overcomplicated for a rookie passer. It's a great sign that the Bears believe in Caleb Williams enough to give him the keys to the offense. But that doesn't mean he's ready to drive a semi-truck on the highway. The Bears should build some easy concepts and ways to help Williams stay in rhythm on Sunday.
If the Bears planned to let Caleb sink or swim, it might be difficult to build enough high-low or split-field reads into the playbook for a full game plan. Because of limitations on practice hours, it seems hard to pivot off the training camp playbook. But they need a handful of ideas sprinkled in and called at the right time.
Additionally, I want to see Chicago's offense focus on getting to the line of scrimmage with plenty of time on the play clock. That will allow Shane Waldron to communicate with Williams at the line of scrimmage and talk him through any checks or reads. I'm not sure that Williams NEEDS much help, from that aspect. But I am sure that it'd help get things operating more smoothly, especially if they're looking for ways to simplify the offense on the fly.
Bears Players to Watch
D'Andre Swift (RB): The Patriots have allowed 150-plus rushing yards in four of their last five games. The Bears got away from running the ball last week but had found explosive runs in the four games before that. Look for them to get Swift going early in this one.
Zacch Pickens (DT): With Andrew Billings done for the season with a torn pectoral, Pickens will have to pick up the slack. Pickens has all the physical tools, but I've questioned whether he has that dog in him. He must prove he can be a dog by getting aggressive and playing fast.
Matt Pryor (RT) and Ryan Bates (RG): With Darnell Wright sidelined, I expect the Bears to kick Matt Pryor out to right tackle and play Ryan Bates (or Nate Davis?) at right guard. That's a new combination that hasn't played together. Chemistry will be a question and could impact the offensive line's ability to handle a quality pass rush from the Patriots.
