Anyone who saw Caleb Williams perform last week and has him on their fantasy team as their backup or mistakenly has him as their regular starter and flushed him after the 29-9 loss may regret it.
At least this week they could regret it—after that, not so much.
The misery the Bears had for two weeks looks to be over and the Jacksonville-Carolina-Rams smiling time they had could return.
The reason is not because Williams is suddenly better for the beating he absorbed last week.
It's simply because the Bears are at home and facing a team less talented. It doesn't get any simpler than this in NFL betting or in fantasy football.
Williams has a passer rating of 105.1 at home. He has an 80.6% completion rate (36 of 45) when leading between 1 and 8 points and a 57.1% completion rate when trailing. The Bears are more likely to be leading in this game, and because they're at home, Williams is more likely to have a bigger game.
Even without two tackles playing this week, the Bears have an answer because they have experienced depth at the position and the Patriots' edge rushers have not exactly taken the league by storm.
Toss in the fact that New England has had problems stopping both the run and pass and this is a prime opportunity to get something out of Williams before the real problems begin against Green Bay and the rest of the NFC North gauntlet.
Teams are rarely as bad as they look in a bad game or as good as they look in a good game in the NFL.
Last week definitely was a bad Bears game, a closer game that took a huge swing downward just before halftime with a coaching blunder by Matt Eberflus and a defense already deflated by the Hail Mary.
SI fantasy expert Michael Fabiano is your typical fantasy analyst, jumping ship a week too early.
He has Williams classified as a "sit 'em" even against a bad defense at home when all trends show Williams as good at home, especially against bad defenses and with leads.
"Williams has had two straight stinkers, and both opponents were good matchups on paper," Fabiano wrote. "He's also dead last in the league among quarterbacks in on-target throws, and his completion percentage in his last two starts is an awful 47.7."
He's giving the Patriots too much credit for being better and the Bears too little credit for playing better at home.
A week changes much in the NFL. So does the opponent and location.
Williams and the Bears should be settled down and moving forward and are good bets this week.
THREE KEYS TO A BEARS WIN OVER THE PATRIOTS
BEARS COULD BE FACING YANNICK NGAKOUE ON SUNDAY
They'll start getting their regular beatings again next week.
Here's who to start and sit in fantasy football for this week's Bears-Patriots game.
MICHAEL FABIANO'S SI FANTASY FOOTBALL TIPS
Start 'Em
1. Bears RB D'Andre Swift
This can be a huge bounce-back week for Swift. New England is on a stretch of seven straight poor games defending the run. The Bears realize they need to run to keep pressure from Williams and they'll also be looking more to victimize a pass defense allowing almost 80% completions in the short-middle portion of fields. Throws to backs could go this week.
2. Bears WR Keenan Allen
It's time to dust him off this week and expect more. The Patriots are 27th in the league stopping third-down plays. Mr. Third Down returns.
3. Bears TE Cole Kmet
The short-middle Pats pass defense allowing such a high completion percentage applies here to Kmet, as well. Also, when a guy hasn't been seen for two straight weeks in the passing game and he was huge in it beforehand, getting the chance to catch a few at home might shake loose a few memories about just who he is with Williams and with play caller Shane Waldron.
4. Patriots TE Hunter Henry
Not only is he their chief receiving threat, but tight end has been a problem for the Bears over the last three games. Evan Engram and Zach Ertz scorched them and Trey McBride had a few bigger plays in the game. New England's wide receiver corps has promise for the future but right now it's Henry who has the eye of Drake Maye.
BEARS AND PATRIOTS: WHO WINS AND WHY
5. Bears QB Caleb Williams
Fantasy experts be damned. Williams is home. After his very first game, he's deadly at home. The Patriots are not going to give up a lot of huge gainers but if Williams is patient he'll have an opportunity to put together drives even without his two starting tackles. Play-action and screens can work against this defense.
6. Patriots QB Drake Maye
The combination of his running and throwing and the likelihood he's trying to throw underneath the coverage while trailing can lead to garbage points in this one for the Patriots starter after the Bears defense victimizes him for some turnovers.
7. Bears WR DJ Moore
The tendency is to forget their top receiver after he ran out of bounds during a play last week but the catch-and-run opportunities can be there on shorter throws against this pass defense, which is playing more zone than some past Patriots defenses have but still is mostly man-oriented.
8. Patriots RB Antonio Gibson
Starter Rhamondre Stevenson is not the type of back who normally gives the Bears defense problems. If they get their gap problems in order, he can be stopped at the line or behind it. But Gibson's great speed and power combination could result in a few bigger plays
9. Patriots WR DeMario Douglas
New England's slot receiver is going against Kyler Gordon, and while normally this would be a positive matchup for the Bears, Gordon is coming off a hamstring pull. Gordon might make big plays, especially in the running game, but covering the speedy, 5-foot-8, 192-pound Douglas will be a challenge after his hamstring injury. Douglas catches a lot of passes against everyone. He has 48 targets and 35 catches, but his yards per catch has been a dismal 8.7. He'll be the under-the-zone guy.
Sit 'Em
1. Bears WR Rome Odunze
He hasn't really been located with consistency by Williams in consecutive games and the outside deeper routes he runs are less likely to come open against the Patriots' secondary, which struggles more in the middle of the field. What Odunze has done really well is adjust when Williams is flushed from the pocket by the pass rush to make catches on extended plays. But the defense needs to have a pass rush first to flush Williams out of the pocket. The Pats haven't had one and it's why they're scraping around the waiver wire scrap heap for former Bears edge Yannick Ngakoue.
2. Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson
Nothing against the Patriots' main back but they just haven't been able to block it against teams for him. He has 37 carries for 82 yards in his last three games. In five of the last six games he failed to get to 50 yards. Sure, the Bears have been inconsistent stopping the run and are without Andrew Billings now, but their run defense will look much better with Montez Sweat and Gordon added to it.
3. Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte
Maye hasn't yet established a good rapport with a potentially explosive target at 13 catches for 203 yards on the year. And Boutte has yet to figure out the NFL.
4. Patriots WR Tyquan Thorton
Their young burner receiver has had the same issue as Boutte. Both he and Boutte are capable of big plays but the consistency hasn't been there. The Patriots are more likely to find K.J. Osborn against the Bears defense because of his familiarity with them as a former Vikings receiver than they are the young big-play threats. But Thorton has been found only seven times for 57 yards this year.
Defense
The Bears defense is a good team play this week at home, with key players returning to the lineup and with a young quarterback struggling to get his offense working. The feeling in the locker room among Bears defensive players is no bewilderment and hurt, like they had last week following the shocking Hail Mary. This week's it's more determination and anger over being exposed and embarrassed physically.
The wounded Bear is the most dangerous one.
In IDP leagues, Montez Sweat is not facing an overwhelming challenge for sacks this week, and secondary players like Gordon, Jaylon Johnson or Tyrique Stevenson are big-play types who could come through with turnovers.
The Betting Window
Bears On SI Record in Bears Games: 7-1 Straight Up, 6-2 against the spread, 5-3 over/under.
This Week's Bears Line: Bears by 6 (38 1/2 over/under)
This Week's Bears Prediction: Bears 27, Patriots 13
Last Week Around the NFL: 10-4 straight up, 9-5 against the spread, 2-2 power plays
Around the NFL to Date: 88-46 straight up (.657), 75-57-2 ATS (.568), 19-17 power plays (.528)
This Week's NFL Games and Picks:
- Bills -4 at Colts: Bills 26, Colts 23
- Giants -6 1/2 at Panthers: Giants 27, Panthers 23*
- Vikings -7 at Jaguars: Vikings 34, Jaguars 20
- Broncos +7 1/2 at Chiefs: Chiefs 37, Broncos 23*
- Falcons -3 1/2 at Saints: Falcons 24, Saints 17
- 49ers -6 1/2 at Buccaneers: Buccaneers 20, 49ers 16
- Steelers +2 1/2 at Commanders: Steelers 20, Commanders 17
- Titans -7 1/2 at Chargers: Chargers 27, Titans 10*
- Jets -2 at Cardinals: Cardinals 19, Jets 16
- Eagles -7 at Cowboys: Eagles 34, Cowboys 26*
- Lions -3 1/2 at Texans: Lions 24, Texans 19
- Dolphins +2 at Rams: Dolphins 31, Rams 28
- Commanders +3 at Eagles**: Eagles 28, Commanders 19
**Week 11 Thursday night game *Power play
-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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