As ‘a lot confidence’ builds in Oilers, Evan Bouchard nearing extension, four-year, $9.5-million AAV deal rumoured

The Edmonton Oilers and Evan Bouchard’s camp have been laying the groundwork over the weekend for a new contract for the restricted free agent defenceman, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported Sunday.

And the new deal, he said, could be coming in with a lower annual dollar amount than had been expected.

“There seems to be a lot of confidence over the weekend they’re going to get this sorted out,” Friedman said on the 32 Thoughts podcast. “I wonder if it’s going to be around four times $9.5-million — that’s just numbers that were being thrown around here. We’ll see, but there seems to be a lot of confidence it’s going to get worked out.”

All the talk around Bouchard’s next deal has been that it would be one paying him eight figures, but Friedman’s report is the first that’s suggested a number below that. But a reason for that is the term of the deal.

Much of the smoke has been that there would be a long-term extension — likely for eight-years — locking Bouchard up as a key cog in the engine that drives this team. A four-year deal is likely part of the reason for that dip in what his cap hit could be.

After all, salary cap prognosticators like Evolving Hockey and AFP Analytics have had Bouchard projected for an eight-year term — the former suggesting a $10.61-million cap hit, the latter a $10.887— million cap hit.

Going shorter term will have its risks for the team. It will walk Bouchard to unrestricted free agency, opening a window for him to potentially leave and sign with another club. There’s also the fact that whatever deal follows this would be for significantly more money. That, of course, is to Bouchard’s benefit, but with a salary cap set to rise to $113.5-million by 2027-28 and with contracts for elite defencemen like Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes set to expire before then, a new benchmark will be made for the upper-echelon of blue liners.

What plays to Edmonton’s benefit in a shorter-term deal is that it helps the team save some money in the short term. While roughly $1-million to $1.5-million in savings may not seem like a lot with the salary cap set for $95.5-million next season, every penny counts for a team like the Oilers strapped to the cap.

Oilers captain Connor McDavid was vocal in his final press conference of the season about getting Bouchard extended, saying it’s “definitely a deal that needs to get done.”

General manager Stan Bowman, meanwhile, said he spoke with Bouchard’s agent, Dave Gagner, earlier last week.

“I had a meeting with Dave earlier and we’ve begun the negotiations. So I think that’s kind of all I really want to say,” Bowman said. “Certainly think Bouch is a great player, had an excellent year.

“He’s a big part of this and we’re going to work through it timing wise. I don’t know how long it’s going to take. It’s two sides and we’re both trying to do what we can we think makes the most sense. I’m not going to be giving the day by day update on the negotiations. It’s like anything else. It’s a process we go through, but we’ve had good discussions and we’ll just keep working at it.”

Bowman went on to say the Oilers were open to different types of contracts.

“We’re open to a bunch of different ideas. I don’t think you can go into a negotiation with just one position. It makes it much more difficult to get a deal done,” he said. “There’s two sides and they both have things they want to accomplish. I think you have to be willing to listen and have different ideas and that’s what we’re doing at this point. It’s tough to say where it will end up, but we’re not going in with just one idea. We’re open minded.”