The Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East five years in a row. While both the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots have had short spurts where it looks like they may challenge Buffalo's reign, Josh Allen and Co. always end up on top by the end of the season.
Still, NFL Media's Senior News Writer Kevin Patra thinks it's possible Buffalo's path to continued dominance may be in jeopardy, listing the Patriots as the team with the second best chances of going worst-to-first in their division.
Since division realignment in 2003, there have only been three seasons where no team went from worst to first in its division. Patra adds, "there have been double that amount of years that have seen two clubs go from worst to first in their divisions in the same season," meaning the statistics favor Patra's argument in this scenario.
Following the San Francisco 49ers, Patra believes the Drake Maye-led Pats have the strongest case to complete this feat. According to Patra, "The story writes itself: Former Patriots Super Bowl champion returns to Foxborough to clean up a mess that's lingered from the dismantling of a dynasty he helped build, and immediately turns the ship back around."
A sophomore breakout season for Maye is fair to project, with the former third overall pick getting plenty of help around him from free agency and the draft. In addition to the signing of two former Bills receivers (Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins), the Pats signed offensive linemen Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses, and drafted RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Kyle Williams, and offensive linemen Will Campbell and Jared Wilson all with Top 100 picks from the 2025 NFL Draft.
Patra cited the "big bucks" used to upgrade the defense, with New England signing DT Milton Williams, EDGE Harold Landry, LB Robert Spillane, and CB Carlton Davis this offseason. Those four players are making a combined $69.5 million in average annual value (AAV) according to Spotrac.
The upgrades in the front-seven will join returning players Keion White, Christian Barmore, and Jahlani Tavai in a unit that was middle of the pack in EPA per rush. Spillane's coverage skills and solid boundary play from Davis will help boost the 30th ranked defense in EPA per pass in 2024.
It's easy to see that New England may have a bright future ahead of them, and may soon pass both the Jets and Dolphins in terms of overall talent (if they haven't already). Still, it's another conversation entirely to discuss them dethroning Buffalo.
Patra concludes, "A fourth-place schedule, an infusion of talent, a greenhorn quarterback making the leap, and a savvy, no-nonsense coach to lead the comeback give the Pats a shot to knock Buffalo off the divisional throne."
