Analytics Highlight How Evan Engram Can Supercharge Broncos' Offense

It's no secret that the Denver Broncos' tight end group delivered lackluster production in 2024. By looking at the tight ends' stats and box scores, one can see that those players provided little support to the Broncos' offense.

By digging deeper, we can see just how bleak it truly was during games. However, let not your heart be troubled, Broncos Country; there is a beacon of hope for 2025.

First, let us examine where the Broncos' tight ends really failed the team: on third down. The position has become a third-down difference-maker in the NFL over the past 15 years, but that was not the case for the 2024 Broncos.

Gridiron Intelligence used a play analysis to shed some light on the subject. 

Here is a scatterplot GI created that puts it into perspective.

 

Tight end production on third down in the 2024 NFL season. / Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

 

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The Broncos were dead last in the league in converting third downs when targeting the tight ends, at a measly 12%. Furthermore, the Broncos understood that this group was not a weapon and chose not to target them very often, putting the onus on wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Devaughn Vele to make those plays. Unfortunately, that makes the offense predictable.

When I dug into the numbers further, I found that Lucas Krull was the Broncos' most targeted tight end on third down with six targets. He only converted 17% of those to first downs. That performance was not entirely his fault since he was only thrown to once, where the pass was at or beyond the first-down marker.

On the rest of the passes, the Broncos relied on Krull to make a play with his legs by throwing it short of the marker. He has potential, but he's not on par with the dynamic tight ends we see across the NFL.

Fast forward to the upcoming 2025 season, and the Broncos will have Engram as their starting tight end. He will vastly improve the team’s third-down performance.

With the Jacksonville Jaguars last season, Engram ranked third on the team in third-down targets, and he converted 47% of them to first downs. If his numbers were to carry over to 2025, it would represent a 246% increase over the Broncos’ tight ends from last year. 

Engram is a more dynamic playmaker than the Broncos' 2024 tight ends, all of whom are still on the roster, with the exception of Greg Dulcich. Engram should fare better than Krull if the Broncos decide to throw short of the marker and rely on him to make a play for the first down.

Engram may be the Broncos' best signing of the offseason. Even though linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga have been lauded as impact free-agent signings, the Broncos' defense was already pretty solid. The offense was not.

Converting third downs leads to scoring more points. Engram will also take some of the pressure off of Sutton and Vele, leading to the Broncos' offense being less predictable and more effective.