The selection of first-round tight end Colston Loveland has generated excitement among the Chicago Bears fan base, but the decision has also given way to some questionable thinking from NFL analysts about veteran starter Cole Kmet.
In Bleacher Report’s NFL Daily Live Show on March 28, former quarterback and now-analyst Kurt Benkert laid out a series of cut and trade predictions for veteran players he expects will still be on the move before the end of the 2025 offseason. His list featured several obvious NFL trade candidates, including Trey Hendrickson and Jalen Ramsey.
In his leadoff prediction, though, Benkert argued the Bears could “just straight-up cut” Kmet this offseason after using their No. 10 overall draft selection on Loveland in April.
“[Kmet] might have some trade value, like maybe, but I could see him being just straight-up cut,” Benkert said. “That doesn’t mean he is cut and nobody is going to want him. It means his cap savings is worth more than his potential value to the Chicago Bears this year.”
Huh?
According to Over the Cap, Kmet has an $11.6 million cap hit for the 2025 season, but the Bears have already fully guaranteed his $9.9 million base salary. They would save just $100,000 by cutting Kmet with a post-June 1 designation, incurring a dead-cap hit of $11.5 million. In other words, these “cap savings” are worth virtually nothing in 2025.
“They’ve got their tight end of the future, and Colston Loveland is a dog. And Ben Johnson is going to find a way to use him, like a dog,” Benkert continued. “But I think Cole Kmet, at his age with some new changes, new faces coming into Chicago, could be on the list for guys who wouldn’t be shocking to me if they got cut.”
Cole Kmet Remains Too Valuable for Bears to Release
Clearly, Benkert didn’t do enough research about Kmet to properly assess his value.
He mistakenly laid out flawed cap numbers to justify his stance. He also referred to how Kmet played after coming back from an injury, even though the 26-year-old tight end has missed just one game — in 2020 as a rookie — with an injury in his five-year career.
The bigger problem with Benkert’s analysis, though, is that he failed to recognize that the presence of Loveland and Kmet allows Johnson to run more two-tight end sets.
While Johnson’s reliance on two-tight end sets is overblown, he has said he plans to build his offense around the Bears’ personnel and now has two capable tight ends who can both contribute as blockers and pass-catchers, giving him an edge in the run game.
Loveland’s vertical ability could also earn him a healthy amount of snaps in the slot, which the Bears can do more effectively if they have a reliable veteran who can hold things down at the tight end position. Kmet needs work as a run-blocker, but he is a reliable pass-catcher with 258 career receptions for 2,592 yards and 19 touchdowns.
The Bears also have injury safeguards to consider. Loveland is still recovering from his shoulder surgery in January, and while the Bears have indicated they expect to have him ready for training camp, they would have no Plan B in place if they jumped the gun and ditched Kmet. Durham Smythe (nine catches in 2024) is the No. 3 in the rotation.
“I’m excited about working with him,” Johnson said of Kmet before April’s draft. “I know he’s going to play a critical role in what we try to do this year.”
Cole Kmet is More Likely to Depart the Bears After 2025
Logic dictates the Bears will not move on from Kmet before or during the 2025 season, but the window is much more open for a trade or his release beginning next offseason.
In 2026, Kmet will have two more years remaining on the four-year, $50 million deal that he signed with the Bears in 2023. That presents the Bears with multiple options for saving money and dumping him from their roster. According to OTC, they could release him early in the 2026 offseason and save $8.4 million against the cap. Instead, they could also designate him as a post-June 1 cut and increase their savings to $10 million.
By that point, the Bears will have a clearer understanding of Loveland and how he is shaping up as an NFL talent. Their top-10 investment in him suggests they want him to eventually succeed Kmet as their starting tight end, but they will need to see it in action before rushing to make personnel decisions. If an injury or poor performance sets him back, the Bears may feel there is no better choice than to hang onto Kmet longer.
From a cost standpoint, Kmet is one of the higher-paid tight ends in the league, but his $11.6 million cap hit in each of the next three seasons is something the Bears can take if he remains an integral part of their offense. They could also restructure his contract in 2026 to make him more affordable, if necessary, setting the stage for a 2027 release.
Either way, moving on from Kmet gets much easier once the 2025 season is over.
