An inevitable scenario for Lions' David Montgomery in 2025 is firmly in play

When contract talks with running back Jamaal Williams were not going well early in 2023 free agency, the Detroit Lions made a fantastic pivot to David Montgomery. The former Chicago Bear has been a perfect fit as the "Knuckles" to Jahmyr Gibbs' "Sonic" in the Detroit rushing attack, and both have been nice options for fantasy managers (with Montgomery as the better value in drafts).

The biggest headline of the Lions' offseason was the loss of both coordinators to head coaching jobs. In the fantasy realm, how/if Ben Johnsons' departure will impact the offense is of course the biggest question regardless of how said question is framed.

New offensive coordinator John Morton will not try to reinvent the wheel, but there will surely be some of his stamps on things too. And with that, the zero-sum game of players possibly being positively or negatively impacted in notable fashion. It's hard to take too much from Morton's previous stint as an NFL play caller, 2017 with the New York Jets, but he did use a three-back committee (more to come on that).

An inevitable scenario is firmly in play for David Montgomery in 2025

Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke has done a fantasy football profile on Montgomery for this year. A fairly grim picture has been painted, with roots in Morton's coaching history whether he has called plays or not.

"We should expect how snaps and touches are distributed to change under Morton’s offense. Most of the potential changes should be positive instead of negative for Gibbs, and negative instead of positive for Montgomery."

"In Morton's one season with New York, Powell took a higher rate of snaps at the goal line than in normal situations, despite being the lightest of their three running backs. In his stints with the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos, those teams had their lead running back take high rates of goal-line snaps, even though both teams had larger running backs on the bench. This could mean some major touchdown regression for Montgomery."

Montgomery's scoring prowess in two years as a Lion, 25 rushing touchdowns with scores in 21 of 28 possible games, has broadly felt unsustainable. Jahnke boiled that down to a couple other numbers.

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"His 0.062 rushing touchdowns per attempt are the most for running backs over the last two seasons, and that rate barely fluctuated from 2023 to 2024. His 11.607 rushing fantasy points per game ranks seventh-most among the same time span."

Montgomery did have a nice uptick in passing game involvement last year compared to 2023 (36 receptions), but he can't possibly offset all of any notable erosion in scoring opportunities by again getting more chances as a receiver. Gibbs taking a bigger share of goal line carries this year is a distinct possibility.

Montgomery had a great fantasy floor in his first two years in Detroit, with Jahnke noting he finished as a top-24 fantasy running back in 85.7 percent of his games with 100 percent of his games as a top-36 finisher. The prospect of touchdown regression hurts that floor and reduces his upside.

Being a "high-end handcuff" to Gibbs is not necessarily bad, but Jahnke's bottom line secures the premise of downside that hasn't previously existed for Montgomery's standalone fantasy value as a Lion.

"If Ben Johnson remained the offensive coordinator with the Detroit Lions, Montgomery would be a relatively safe option to set in your fantasy starting lineup each week, even if his upside is limited. However, with John Morton, there is a risk that he will mostly become a handcuff option to Jahmyr Gibbs.

While it'll be convenient to blame any touchdown regression Montgomery has this year on the Lions' offensive coordinator change, with data that'll back it up if it does happen, he was in line for some regression there anyway. As for what that regression might look like, 7-10 rushing touchdowns is a reasonable expectation a fair chunk of fantasy managers (and Lions fans) should be able to live with.