The Seattle Seahawks already know their playoff fate has been sealed following the worst possible set of results in Week 17. After a 1-4 start, the Los Angeles Rams are NFC West champions for the first time since 2021, when they eventually won the Super Bowl.
At 9-7, the Seahawks have already clinched a winning record and actually improved by one game from their 16-game marks from the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Unfortunately, the depth of the NFC this season meant the standard for reaching the playoffs as a Wild Card was unusually difficult.
No 10-win NFL team has missed the playoffs in the 14-team playoff era
We do have some history at stake on Sunday. Whether or not the Seahawks and/or Rams play their starters the whole game (if at all), a win is a win. If the Seahawks finish the season 10-7, they’ll hold the unlucky distinction of being the first 10-win team to miss the 14-team postseason.
The NFL moved from 12 to 14 spots in 2020, theoretically increasing the chances for a below .500 squad to get in through the extra Wild Card. While we’ve had multiple sub .500 division champions during that span, we’ve yet to see an 8-9 squad take the No. 7 spot.
Who’s the last 10-win team to miss the playoffs?
The 2020 Miami Dolphins needed a win on the final day to make the playoffs and proceeded to get smoked 56-26 by the Buffalo Bills. Preceding the Dolphins was the 2015 New York Jets, who lost their must-win season finale to... the Buffalo Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s run of being a starting quarterback on the most recent 10-win teams to miss the postseason could be over this weekend.
How often have 10-win NFL teams missed the playoffs over the past several decades?
There needs to be some context here. After the AFL-NFL merger, the NFL had eight postseason teams from 1970-1977, then 10 teams from 1978-1989, 12 teams from 1990-2019, and 14 teams from 2020-present.
Even with that acknowledgement, only 29 teams with 10+ wins have ever missed the playoffs. Five of them were during the eight-team era, which meant finishing 10-4 under the old 14-game schedule and having an early vacation. In the 10-team era, 11 teams were left out despite 10-6 or 11-5 records, while the remaining 13 were in the 12-team era.
It should be noted that the 2014 Philadelphia Eagles were eliminated from the postseason with a week to spare despite being 9-6, so that’s the closest comparison we have to the 2024 Seahawks.
Have the Seattle Seahawks ever missed the playoffs with 10 wins before?
Yes, actually. Way back in 1986, the Seahawks were top-10 in points allowed and points scored, raced out to a 3-0 record and were 5-2 through seven games after beating the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants. A four-game slide to 5-6 ensued, with three of those losses coming via blowout. Chuck Knox’s group turned the ship around and won their last five games, including a 41-16 hammering of the eventual AFC champion Denver Broncos. Unfortunately, Seattle lost tiebreakers to both the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs. The NFL had a 10-team playoff at the time but with three division winners and two Wild Card spots.
Seattle nearly added itself to the list again in 2017. The 9-6 Seahawks lost on a missed Blair Walsh field goal to the Arizona Cardinals, thus avoiding the “10-6, no playoffs” category.
If the Seahawks lose on Sunday, then I really wasted my time providing all of these interesting statistics.
