Even before NFL schedules came out opponents were known, and based on those the Bears looked to have a formidable task ahead for this first season under Ben Johnson.
NFL.com had them with a schedule of opponents who had a .571 winning percentage, tied for the second most difficult with Detroit and just a tick behind the Giants' schedule at .574.
Just like with anything today there are other ways of doing calculations, and things look quite different according to Sharp Football Analysis' annual look at the schedule.
Sharp does its annual schedule projection based on over/under win totals from Las Vegas' oddsmakers for a team's opponents in the coming season, and not last year's actual win totals. They go through each game a team will play to apply the total projected wins and believe this portrays a more accurate picture.
Sharp maintains the standard strength of schedule is "... lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient. NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development."
What the Sharp schedule analysis says for the Bears is different compared to what using last year's win totals said.
The Bears actually play the seventh toughest schedule rather than second toughest. Sharp's method agrees the Giants have the toughest schedule.
They are followed by the Browns, Lions third, Eagles fourth, Vikings fifth and Chiefs sixth. Green Bay has the 10th toughest schedule but the easiest in the NFC North.
San Francisco has the easiest schedule overall, which adds to the argument the 49ers will be the most likely team to go from worst to first.
As proof of their method's accuracy, Sharp looked at last year.
"In 2024, just two of 10 teams with the toughest schedules made the playoffs (Lions and Rams)," they wrote. "Meanwhile, of the 10 teams with the easiest schedules, seven produced winning records, with six making the playoffs."
Is it an infallible way of predicting fortunes for the coming season? Hardly.
Last year Sharp had the Bears tied for third-easiest schedule. When Week 18 ended and real win-loss totals of teams could be used, the Bears actually had played the second toughest schedule in the NFL for 2024.
The standard method of looking at the previous year's win-loss totals was no more accurate for predicting how tough the Bears' schedule would be because they had the Bears slated to play the third-easiest schedule, as well.
So are the Bears facing the second-toughest schedule this year or the seventh-toughest?
What fans have to hope is both the Sharp and standard methods prove as accurate as last year when they were both about 180 degrees off. Then the Bears might have a better chance of becoming a playoff team.
