AFC West has never looked better but Chiefs still hold the cheat code

Everything seems routine this offseason when it comes to discourse around the Kansas City Chiefs. Colin Cowherd, who sits alongside Dan Patrick and Jim Rome as one of the godfathers of American sports radio, has once again picked the Los Angeles Chargers to win the AFC West. He does this every year.

Cowherd allows himself plenty of flexibility in his opinions, so each year when Mahomes and Reid lead the team into the AFC Championship Game, likely as hosts, he still ends up on the right side of history.

To make a big splash, hot-take merchants like Cowherd have to step out on a ledge, so predicting the Chiefs' downfall year after year—and being wrong—is the price of doing business.

The rest of the division has been chasing Kansas City for nearly a decade with little success. Each team has spent vast amounts of cash and draft capital in an effort to compete with and eclipse the league’s current dynasty.

Last season, the NFC North stood out across the league with only the Bears missing the playoffs. The AFC West had a similarly competitive run, but there’s still a clear gap. The Lions and Vikings could take steps back due to coordinator departures in Detroit and Sam Darnold’s move to Seattle. The Packers remain a mystery at a few key positions, while the Bears should be improved under new head coach Ben Johnson.

In other words, the title of “Best Division in Football” might be up for grabs.

Upgrades all around in the AFC West

Another offseason brings another round of attempts from every other team to dethrone Kansas City in the division—and beyond. The AFC West brought real gumption in 2024, with the Chargers and Broncos punching Wild Card tickets. Even the Raiders made a bold move with their new coaching hire. This coming season might actually see the Chiefs fail to finish atop the AFC West, and here’s why.

The L.A. Chargers released Joey Bosa, who signed with Buffalo and will now be chasing Mahomes from the other coast. But they also doubled down on the Harbaugh-ness of their new culture. Drafting Omarion Hampton and signing Najee Harris signals L.A.’s commitment to the run game. Their oversized offensive line might pave wide lanes for their new backs while keeping their franchise quarterback upright. Justin Herbert had his most statistically efficient season in 2024 and should build on it in the year ahead. Cowherd’s decision to ride the roller-coaster formerly known as the San Diego Chargers makes more sense now.

Sean Payton’s second year mentoring Bo Nix has Broncos fans (and others) feeling optimistic. Nix was clearly the second-best rookie QB behind Jayden Daniels and simply ran into a buzzsaw in Buffalo in the first round. Pat Surtain II leads a defense upholding the Orange Crush legacy, and Payton’s front office is likely to continue improving the roster.

Before Pete Carroll’s hiring, acknowledging the Las Vegas Raiders beyond their existence felt generous. But Carroll has begun asserting his culture, starting with the selection of Ashton Jeanty, an echo of his acquisition of Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. Carroll’s approach centers on defense and a conservative offense, but Geno Smith targeting Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer out of 12 personnel should add fireworks to the ground game. If respected DC Patrick Graham can piece together their secondary, the Raiders could leap into contention.

What about the Chiefs here?

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are still waiting to hear about Rashee Rice’s suspension following a car incident over a year ago and will rely on his return whenever it happens. Hollywood Brown is also returning after missing most of the 2024 season. Isiah Pacheco suffered his first significant injury as a pro running back, which is never a good sign at that position. The offensive line will be breaking in yet another new left tackle, whether it’s rookie Josh Simmons or Plan B, Jaylon Moore. Even if Simmons starts on opening day, his consistency will hinge on the health of his knee.

The perceived time limit on the Chiefs' dominance might be drawing near. For non-Chiefs fans, watching Kansas City in three straight Super Bowls is exhausting. For the players, it’s even more taxing—physically and mentally—over 20 grueling Sundays a year. The Bills, Bengals, Ravens, and other AFC contenders are getting closer each year to preventing another Chiefs Super Bowl appearance. And even if Kansas City gets there again, who’s to say they won’t run into another stacked Eagles team or a hungry Lions squad?

That said, the Chiefs could have signed or drafted no one and still likely reached the AFC Championship Game. The division is improving, but so is everyone in it, so there's a good chance each team just beats up on the others.

Kansas City still looks like the overlord of the AFC West and possibly the entire conference because of two names: Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Even with a weaker roster than some of their 2024 opponents, they prevailed more often than not because of that singular, special partnership.

Everything seems routine this offseason regarding the discourse on the Kansas City Chiefs. Colin Cowherd, who sits aside Dan Patrick and Jim Rome as the godfathers of American sports radio, has once again picked the Los Angeles Chargers to win the AFC West. He does this every year.

Cowherd allows himself flexibility in his opinions, so each year when Mahomes and Reid lead the team into the AFC Championship game, and are likely hosting it, he remains on the right side of history. To make a big splash, take merchants like Cowherd must step out onto a ledge, so predicting the Chiefs' downfall year after year, and being wrong, is the price of doing business. The division has been chasing Kansas City for nearly a decade now to little success. Each team has spent vast amounts of cash and draft capital in efforts to compete and eclipse the dynasty of the time.

Last year, the NFC North dominated the rest of the league with only the Bears not making the playoffs and the AFC West had a similar outcome, but there is a clear separation. The Lions and Vikings may have their respective stepbacks due to coordinators leaving Detroit and Sam Darnold's departure to Seattle. The Packers are still a colossal question mark at a few positions and the Bears should be improved with Ben Johnson at the helm. The title for 'Best Division in Football' may be up for grabs.

Another offseason brings another round of endeavors by every other team to beat Kansas City in the division and otherwise. The AFC West brought actual gumption to the fight in 2024 with the Chargers and Broncos punching Wild Card tickets, but even the Raiders made a massive move with their coaching hire. The coming season may actually see the Chiefs not prevail atop the AFC West and here's why:

The LA Chargers released Joey Bosa, who signed with Buffalo and will be seeking Mahomes from the other coast, but drilled further into the Harbaugh-ness of their new culture. Drafting Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris clearly spells out LA's commitment to the run game. Their ridiculously sized offensive line may pave the widest roads for their new backs while protecting their franchise quarterback. Justin Herbert has his most statistically efficient year in 2024 and should use it as a launching pad into next year. Cowherd's selection to ride the roller-coaster ride formerly in San Diego makes sense with their improved factors.

Sean Payton's second year mentoring Bo Nix has plenty of Broncos fans (and otherwise) excited for the future. Nix was clearly the second-best rookie QB behind Jayden Daniels and ran into the buzzsaw that was the Buffalo Bills in the first round. Pat Surtain II leads a group of defenders that is upholding the Orange Crush legacy. Payton and the Broncos brass will only improve on their roster in the coming years.

Prior to Pete Carroll's hiring, acknowleding the Las Vegas Raiders beyond their existence was more than enough. Now, Caroll asserting his culture with Ashton Jeanty as his first pick mirrors his acquisition of Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. Clearly Pete Carroll's philosophy centers around defense and a more conservative offensive approach, but Geno Smith targeting Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer (in 12 personnel) is sure to produce some fireworks in congruence with the rushing attack. If Patrick Graham, one of the league's more respected DCs, can Frankenstein their secondary, they may leap into division contention as well.

The Chiefs are still waiting to hear on the Rashee Rice suspension after his car incident over a year ago and will be relying on his return whenever it occurs. Hollywood Brown will be coming back, too, but he also missed the majority of the 2024 season. Isiah Pacheco has notched his first major injury as a running back, which is not appetizing for his position. The offensive line will introduce yet another left tackle into the fold whether it be rookie Josh Simmons or Jaylon Moore, who has been viewed as a Plan B. Even if Simmons starts on opening day, his consistency will be dependent on his knee health.

The general time limit on the Chiefs' success seems to be running out as well. Going to the last three Super Bowls is exhausting for the non-Chiefs viewing base, but it's excruciating to the actual men strapping pads on about 20 Sundays a year. The Bills, Bengals, Ravens, or some other team from the AFC has shown their ability to get closer and closer each year to hindering KC from another Super Bowl appearance. Even if Kansas City gets to the game of games, who's to say they don't run into another elite Eagles team or a Lions team with something to prove?

The Kansas City Chiefs could have signed or drafted exactly no one and proably would be playing in the AFC Championship game. The division is getting better, but the ENTIRE division is getting better, so you can also predict that each team will beat up on each other as well. Kansas City still appears to be the ultimate overlord amongst the four teams and conference because of two names: Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Even when the Chiefs had a worse roster than their opponents in 2024, the reason they prevailed more often than not is because of their wonderful partnership.