Once again, Sam Darnold turned in an epic performance as the Minnesota Vikings rattled off their eighth straight win by beating the Seattle Seahawks 27-24 Sunday afternoon. And once again, national talking points surrounding Darnold and the Vikings revolve around the offseason decision Minnesota will have to make with the 27-year-old quarterback.
"This is going to continue to become an interesting storyline. To date the Vikings and Sam Darnold haven't had any discussions aimed at a long-term contract extension," ESPN's Adam Schefter said Monday on The Pat McAfee Show, reiterating a point he made earlier in December about a lack of talks between the sides.
"I think that they figure, 'Let's just let this play out and see where it goes.' But with every week that Sam Darnold continues to play like this, you just look at the quarterback market this offseason I can count, right now, minimum of seven teams that are going to need a new quarterback for next year," Schefter said. "There are, in this upcoming draft, two quarterbacks that I think teams feel strongly about in Sheduer Sanders and Cam Ward. Those quarterbacks will go to two of those teams, that leaves us with five teams with major quarterback questions.
"There aren't enough quarterbacks to satisfy the teams that have a quarterback need, which is why that plays right into Sam's bargaining power. So, the question becomes, how much will he command (on the) market? What will some teams be willing to commit to him? Then Minnesota has to make a decision, 'OK, do we want to go commit to this guy?' I think there's going to be some intriguing scenarios out there for Sam Darnold."
What those scenarios will be are anybody's guess at this point. Minnesota still has two weeks remaining in the season and the chance to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Vikings have rookie J.J. McCarthy, who they drafted with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 draft, waiting in the wings, which certainly complicates the decision for Minnesota.
However, Darnold is having a truly rare season. For a guy that was once selected with the No. 3 overall pick, there is the possibility this isn't just a fluke season, instead a reflection of what Darnold is capable of producing with the right group.
Among the voices vouching for the Vikings to retain Darnold is FS1's Colin Cowherd, who said Minnesota should at least franchise tag Darnold this offseason.
"I know Sam Darnold was supposed to be like a one-year thing, but he is so good with Justin Jefferson. He is so clutch in the fourth quarter. This is no longer just a good story," Cowherd said on his daily radio show Monday. "To me, you've got to franchise tag him at minimum. You can't let him go."
"That fourth-quarter, game-winning drive encapsulates all of Sam Darnold. The athletic ability, the toughness, making big throws in big moments. There is no denying he is helping pull this team," Cowherd added. "That last drive, man, that's something else. And again, lost their left tackle, wasn't perfect. This team could still be the No. 1 seed."
According to Over The Cap, a franchise tag for a quarterback next offseason is projected to be around $41.3 million. While that's certainly a steep price tag, the Vikings could afford it without inflicting too much damage on their salary cap.
Minnesota will have a projected $76.4 million in available cap space in the 2025 offseason. The question then becomes how much they want to invest in Darnold when they have McCarthy in the wings.
"If you're the Vikings and you drafted, and believe in, J.J. McCarthy, how high are you willing to go for Sam Darnold to keep him?" Schefter said. "Do you want to just run it back with him? Do you want to compromise your cap like that? Or do you believe in J.J. enough, have you seen enough to turn it over to him right now?
"It's a really interesting decision that they're going to have make here."
Whether Minnesota wants to keep Darnold — taking up a big chunk of cap space the franchise could use to help add signifcant pieces to a roster clearly ready to contend — or let Darnold walk and hand the reigns to McCarthy — giving themselves significantly more money to throw at game-changing free agents — is a massive decision to make.
But, with the Vikings in the race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, that's a decision for a different day. Darnold still has two more regular-season games and at least one playoff game to increase his profile and bargaining power.
"It took awhile, but he's special," Cowherd said.
