The top four in the Miami Heat's starting lineup are sketched in stone—Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will kick off the season running big minutes together. Due to his size, shooting, and decision-making, Nikola Jovic should be the fifth starter, but that's another subject.
Haywood Highsmith could sneak into the starting lineup before the season ends. The on-ball defense he provides isn't coming from anywhere else on the roster. Highsmith needs to continue to shoot the ball at a passable clip to earn those minutes. He shot 39% on a shade under three 3-point attempts last year; we need to see that again.
Both Jovic and Highsmith provide traits that make a quality lineup. When firing on all cylinders, both players offer defensive versatility and spacing. Jovic can guard two positions (4s and 5s). He's not elite but has grown to be a serviceable defender. He's not a player Spo has to hide. We know how valuable Highsmith is when he has his 3-and-D game going. Another factor that makes a quality lineup is the synergy between players sharing the floor. Highsmith, in particular, looked good playing with two of the Heat's bright young stars.
According to PBP stats, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Highsmith had a whopping +15.4 net rating in 170 minutes together. That sample is minimal, but the logic behind the trio makes sense. Herro can operate in more of a lead guard role, sharing the rock with Jaquez.
Jaquez is versatile and fits like a chameleon in most lineups. Need him to cut? Done. Do you need him to initiate on the ball? He's got you covered. Need him to spot up? He's getting there -- Jaquez discussed the importance of becoming a more consistent long-range sniper.
With Jaquez's plug-and-play mentality, Herro can get off those tough, self-generated shots he loves to generate in a lineup with Jaquez and Highsmith. Highsmith complements those two due to his on-ball defense and corner shooting when he's playing at his peak. He doesn't beg for the ball, but he'll take the tough matchups that play the same position as Herro and Jaquez.
We have an idea about the Heat's starting lineup, but there's another group that could win minutes.
Nikola Jovic should be in the starting lineup alonside Herro and company, but he's still a glove fit with this lineup. Jovic would offer more spacing to give Jaquez and Herro driving lanes. Jovic's brilliant passing would amplify the space in this lineup. I'm salivating at the mouth, imagining Highsmith rolling off stagger screens, two defenders flying at Herro, with Jaquez or Jovic hitting Highsmith with a perfectly timed hitch. Everyone's strengths are working together in actions like this.
Who'd be the five-man in to complement Herro, Jaquez, Highsmith, and Jovic? In theory, Bam Adebayo works with any group. His defensive presence could make the Indiana Pacers a serviceable defense; Bam is just that good in any scheme. Though Bam will shoot more 3s this year to potentially change the Heat's ceiling, we will go with Kel'el Ware in this surprising lineup.
Ware shot 43% from 3 on low volume in his sophomore campaign at Indiana University. If that and his two blocks a game carry over to the NBA, the Heat will have a 2024 Kristaps Porzingis-like rookie on the roster. This 3-and-D center archetype is extremely valuable in today's NBA landscape.
With the apex version of each player, this lineup offers everything to catch teams off guard: shooting, stingy defense, unselfishness, crisp passing, and, ultimately, the element of surprise. This five-man group is a lineup the Heat could run in spurts to get Herro going or to change the flow of the game.
