Do you get the sense that the Los Angeles Rams are open to trading back in the 2025 NFL Draft? Call it instinct, wild speculation, or just a feeling that won't go away, but the Rams have trade-back vibes as the three-day draft event looms ever larger on the horizon. So why would GM Les Snead even ponder trading back in this draft, after landing the 2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft?
Old habits are simply hard to break.
The Rams are more about getting the most value out of the draft class than landing the biggest stars or making the biggest splash. Their entire data analytics is built around the concept of optimizing value. When rubber meets the pavement, it's easier to get tremendous value from a rookie class in later rounds because one player like WR Puka Nacua found in Round 5 is such a rare and incredible find.
Had the Rams landed Nacua with a Top 15 pick in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft, he would be old news.
It's not that the Rams are necessarily adverse to making a selection in Round 1 (see the Jared Verse pick in the 2024 NFL Draft), it's simply a matter of not following the herd. In a draft class in which NFL teams stampeded to select wide receivers, quarterbacks, and offensive tackles, the Rams landed the best edge rusher as late in the draft as the 19th overall pick. That's an unheard of feat.
But it's so rare because other NFL teams frequently shop for edge rushers, and many make their picks long before the Rams step up to the podium. Many teams rely on a combination of consensus and need to dictate their rookie tiers. But the Rams front office seems to be a bit immune to outside pressure. When it comes to selecting players, the Rams are adept at kicking over every rock, taking risks, and being confident in their proprietary process.
And why not? Since winning Super Bowl LVI, the team has managed to find elite starters in each of the past three drafts. Curiously, they seem to do best in the later rounds. It is for that reason that the vibes for the Rams trading back in this year's draft are so strong. But it's just the tip of the iceberg:
So why are the Rams 'feeling' like a trade back? Let's explore some of the reasons that seem to negate the Rams standing pat at the 26th overall pick. They are:
(4) - Trade up scenarios seem to pricey
We explored a scenario in which the Rams could trade up for Penn State tight end Tyler Warren. But with multiple teams interested in grabbing a tight end in the 2025 NFL Draft, the optimal spot to ensure Warren is available is nearly among the top five picks. The cost of how much the Rams would need to invest in selecting Warren is two Round 1 and two Round 3 picks.
While that is extremely pricey for a tight end, it's the cost of doing business to land one of the few elite talents in this rookie class. Since elite talent is not abundant, the price goes up when the supply goes down. Unless the Rams target a rookie prospect who is not popular among other NFL teams, the cost of trading is counter-productive to the value that player would add to the Rams roster.
(3) - 26th pick could hold immense value to other NFL teams
While the Rams may not get the best bang for the buck at the 26th overall pick, that does not mean that no team would find immense value at the end of Round 1. If you are a team in need of a quarterback like the New York Giants, the New Orleans Saints, and even the Pittsburgh Steelers, it may behoove them to aim at the best non-quarterback with their first Round 1 pick of the 2025 NFL Draft. Then, having landed the best talent possible for their roster, trade with the Rams to get another late Round 1 draft pick to add the next tier or quarterbacks.
Of course, other trade up scenarios exist for other teams. Since teams that select after the Rams are all playoff teams, if they have a player in their sights on the board at the 26th overall pick, they could be prompted to trade with the Rams to ensure that they get their guy. And in the process, they deny a talented rookie from joining the ranks of a top competitor.
(2) - Rams love to pick in Round 2 and 5
While the Rams should have no regrets from past trades, the impacts of previous trades continue to challenge the team's front office on draft day. The Rams traded a 2025 Round 5 pick to the Pittsburgh Steelers as part of the bundled payment for IOL Kevin Dotson. Added to the Rams boot from that trade is the Steelers' Round 6 pick. The Rams have four picks in Round 6, but none in Round 5.
Likewise, the Rams traded the 2025 Round 2 pick to the Carolina Panthers as part of the package needed to trade up to select DT Braden Fiske. Fiske was one of the finalists for NFL DROY honors last year. He was also one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So yes, he was and is still worth it.
The thing is, the Rams love picks in Rounds 2 and 5. The affinity for picks in Round 5 are evident in the team's success. The Rams selected RB Kyren Williams and WR Puka Nacua in Round 5 of the 2022 and 2023 NFL Drafts, respectively. Both are now the primary offensive weapons for the team as it readies for the 2025 NFL season.
Likewise, the Rams have landed DT Braden Fiske and IOL Steve Avila in the 2024 and 2023 NFL Drafts, respectively. Bot have become fierce warriors at the line of scrimmage for the team. But the 2025 NFL Draft
(1) - Rams are not likely to reach for players in Round 1
The composition of the rookie prospects available in the 2025 NFL Draft can be a bit challenging for an NFL general manager. NFL fans are not wrong to expect rookies who are selected in Round 1 of a draft to start as rookies. It's not even off the wall for fans to expect significant playing time from any rookie who is selected on Day 1 or 2 of the NFL draft. If the consensus among NFL draft analysts proves to be true,
Whether you appreciate the Rams efforts in the first wave of the 2025 NFL Free Agency market, the results of careful shopping has eliminated the need for the team to find instant starters for the 2025 season. The Rams extended left tackle Alaric Jackson, landed a run-stuffing nose tackle in Poona Ford, and added a very productive veteran wide receiver in Davante Adams.
While there are areas that the team should address, the biggest and most urgent needs for the Rams roster have been addressed. That is not to say that the team's roster cannot be upgraded in the 2025 NFL Draft. Quite the opposite, in fact. It's just that the Rams are less likely to reach in the draft as there are no 'gotta get' positions that much be addressed quickly.
The Rams therefore can let the board fall to them. But why would that make the Rams more likely to trade back?
The consensus among draft analysts is the belief that there are less than a dozen elite players up for grabs in this rookie class. But the stength of this draft is the abundant number of players who are NFL-ready to start in their rookie season. If the Rams share that view, their board may have few Tier 1 rookies, but an overwhelming number of Tier 2 players.
If that is the case, it's far better for the team to explore ways not to overspend in Round 1. Rather, trade back to Round 2, and in the process pick up additional picks that can be used to add additional solid talent. Even as the Rams know that this team needs depth at linebacker, cornerback, quarterback, and perhaps wide receiver and defensive line, the team can find those players in Rounds 2 though 5. Right now, the Rams hold three picks in those Rounds. Trading back could double the number of picks the team holds in the fertile middle rounds.
Of course, any trade involves two NFL teams, both convinced that they emerge with more value than they surrendered. But the dynamics of the 2025 NFL Draft are ripe for many win-win trade scenarios. And the Rams front office is quite adept at exploiting those win-win scenarios to its advantage.
Nobody can 'know' the future. But there is a bit of a Rams trade-back scent in the breeze right now. There are many sound reasons for the team to explore trading back. And the team is incentivized to do so. Will the Rams trade back? Only time will tell.
As always, thanks for reading.
