As the 2024-25 NHL season nears, fans around the league are blindly optimistic for their favorite teams. Following the Edmonton Oilers’ Game 7 loss to the Florida Panthers in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, expectations for the Oilers are at an all-time high. Now with a strong offseason and new season ahead, there are many reasons to believe the Oilers will win the 2025 Stanley Cup.
1. Oilers Were Right There
The Panthers lost the 2023 Stanley Cup to the Vegas Golden Knights and bounced back the following season with a dominant 16-8 playoff run en route to winning the franchise’s first Stanley Cup. With the Oilers just a few favorable bounces away from winning the 2024 Stanley Cup, there is no reason to believe they cannot return to where they were.
2. Maintaining the Core
Typically when teams go on deep playoff runs, pending free agents will look for massive paydays. Fortunately for the Oilers, this was not the case for the majority of the core. Outside of the departures of Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod, no impactful roster players departed. Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais were nice stories to the defense but had minimal impact during the team’s playoff run. Dylan Holloway had some upside, but so will Vasily Podkolzin. By bringing back the core, the Oilers are well-situated to build on last season’s success.
3. Full Season under Knoblauch
Kris Knoblauch replaced former Oilers’ head coach Jay Woodcroft in the middle of last season. Under Knoblauch, the Oilers went 46-18-5 in 69 games. For an 82-game pace, the team would have finished with 115 points in the standings. With a full offseason, training camp, and preseason, he will be able to fully implement his system.
4. Skinner and Arvidsson Additions
Throughout the Connor McDavid era, the Oilers have struggled to provide him with sufficient depth among the forwards. While this was not a weakness last season, the additions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson should put any remaining concerns to rest. The team now boasts not only a star-studded top six but also significantly stronger third and fourth lines thanks to these free-agent signings. Both players are aiming to bounce back from last season and are poised to join the Oilers’ middle six where they could make an immediate impact and potentially reach career-high point totals
5. Stuart Skinner’s Brilliant Second Half
Looking at Stuart Skinner’s 2023-24 season, he did alright. He finished with a 36-16-5 record, a 2.62 goals against average (GAA), and a .905 save percentage (SV%). In the playoffs, he went 14-9-0 with a 2.45 GAA and .901 SV%. However, following Knoblauch’s entrance and Jack Campbell’s demotion to the AHL, Skinner dominated.
Prior to Dec. 21, Skinner had a .884 SV% and -7.39 goals saved above expected (GSAx), the fourth lowest of all goaltenders at the time. After Dec. 21, he had a .916 SV% and 20.46 GSAx, the fourth-best of all goaltenders in that time span. Now entering his first season as the consensus starting goaltender, Skinner is in line to build on last season’s success as he aims to join the premier tier of starting goalies in the NHL.
6. Elite 5v5 Analytics
In the 2023-24 season, the leading teams in xG% were the Oilers (57.4), Panthers (56.93), Carolina Hurricanes (56.46), and Dallas Stars (55.57). In the 2024 Playoffs, the leading teams in xG% were the Oilers (55.74), Hurricanes (55.72), Colorado Avalanche (53.79), and Panthers (53.43).
At even strength, the Oilers led the NHL with a 58.17 xG% during the regular season. However, this dropped to 48.53 in the playoffs, likely due to injuries and fatigue. After enduring a long season and playoff run, the team has gained valuable lessons and built the endurance needed to go all the way.
Additionally, the fact that the Oilers—a team known for their dominant power play but typically average even-strength play—had such success at even-strength last season shows that this group is capable of winning a Stanley Cup. Whether they can replicate that success is uncertain, but the advanced stats indicate that last season’s performance was no fluke.
Each NHL season, several teams have the potential to win the Stanley Cup, but only one ultimately prevails. After a Stanley Cup Final loss last season and no major roster losses in the offseason, the Oilers have a compelling case to claim Lord Stanley for the sixth time in franchise history.
