The Seattle Seahawks' expectations for 2024 are a bit all over. Some pundits think with an improved defense, Seattle could get back to the playoffs. Others, for whatever reason, believe Seattle should not win more than six games.
That last part is odd because even with a bad defense the last two seasons, the team has still gone 9-8. The offense should not be any worse this year as most of the offensive weapons return. Plus, the offense might be more efficient with Ryan Grubb as the new offensive coordinator.
The season might rise or fall based on the play of the five players that follow. If even four of them do quite well, Seattle will make the playoffs and be a dangerous team once there. If they fail, those "six wins" pundits might not be far off.
Tyler Lockett - Seahawks wide receiver
Lockett, of course, has never been a bad player. He has evolved from an excellent returner to a fantastic receiver. That does not change the fact that he is getting a bit old for a smaller receiver. Lockett will turn 32 years old early in the 2024 season. He is signed through 2025, and his contract will be very expensive next year.
Still, the receiver had his worst season since 2017 last year. Though he had the second-most targets of his career, he had his second-lowest catches since 2018 and his second-most drops ever. Lockett also had his second-fewest touchdown receptions since 2017. The question is not whether Lockett is Seattle's WR1 anymore, but if he is WR3 now behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Lockett reworked his deal this offseason so he actually makes less money overall. The issue is his cap hit was lowered for 2024 but increases to $30,895,000 in 2025. That is the third-highest in the NFL though we can be assured that Lockett will not be the third-most productive receiver in the league. If nothing else, he will have targets taken away by DK Metcalf and JSN.
Lockett will remain a good player, but if his numbers don't improve much over 2023 then he gets too expensive to keep around, sadly. He is a great person and an all-time great Seahawks player. The NFL is a business, however, and tough decisions have to be made.
Dre'Mont Jones - Seahawks edge rusher
Jones had a poor start to his Seattle career after signing as a free agent in 2023. At the time, it was the most expensive contract general manager John Schneider had offered a free agent. Seattle was probably hoping for better than the 4.5 sacks and 20 total pressures that Jones delivered. He was ill-used by former defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt's scheme, but Jones did not do much to overcome that.
This season, Jones is being moved to more of an edge rusher. This should help the Seahawks' run defense which was terrible (31st in the league) last season, and should open up Jones to get more pressures. He was more efficient last year after being moved outside the tackles late in the season.
Head coach Mike Macdonald also is smart enough to find creative ways to use Jones. His cap number is just below $11 million in 2024 but moves to $25,645,418. If he doesn't increase his production this season, Seattle could release him and save $11,572,500.
Tyrel Dodson - Seahawks inside linebacker
The Seahawks are putting a lot of faith in Dodson as this will be his first season in his five-year career that he will be a presumed starter entering a season. Dodson was very good for the Buffalo Bills when he started 10 games after numerous Bills linebackers had been injured, but he only has 15 career starts. He will be tasked with being the green dot in Mike Macdonald's defense.
The linebacker did take advantage of the situation he was put in and finished as Pro Football Focus's (paywall alert) top-graded linebacker last year. He excels in coverage, can be an efficient blitzer, and plays the run fairly well. At least, that is what he has done in minimal starts in four years.
Dodson was only signed for one season so this is a bit of a make-or-break season for him. If he plays as well as the Seahawks hope, John Schneider will aggressively pursue Dodson in hopes he re-signs. Otherwise, Dodson might be one-and-done with Seattle.
Right tackle Abraham Lucas
Lucas has to prove he can get and stay healthy this year. He was quite good as a rookie in 2022, but then missed most of last season with a knee injury that former head coach Pete Carroll called "chronic." The right tackle had surgery this offseason in hopes of correcting the issue, but he has yet to practice with the team.
John Schneider recently said that he expects Lucas to play at some point this season, but no one can be quite sure what that means. He will miss at least the first four games because he is starting the season on the physically unable to perform list. Maybe he returns in Week 7? Or possibly in Week 15? If that last situation is what happens then that means another lost season for Lucas and the Seahawks.
He is only signed through 2025. The hope is that next year he will be fully healthy and able to play from the start, but there is no evidence to suggest one should assume that. There is nothing wrong with Lucas's character, of course, but an underappreciated talent is being available to play and Lucas cannot do that currently.
Quarterback Geno Smith
Smith is a good quarterback. The numbers prove that. In his two years as a starter for the Seahawks. Smith has a top-12 Total QBR and led the league in game-winning drives and fourth quarter comebacks last year. In 2022, he led the league in completion percentage and the NFC in touchdown passes.
Smith is not a perfect quarterback. Those don't exist. Even Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes makes mistakes. Smith is good enough to get Seattle to the playoffs, however, as he did that in 2022. Without his fourth quarter heroics in 2023, the team might not have won more than five or six games.
Still, Smith's cap hit edges closer to $40 million next season so he will need to prove not only that he is good enough to be QB1 in 2025, but beyond that as well. He wants an extension, and he might be worthy of one, but he needs to prove he can lead new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb's offense to great success first.
