After more than a month of training camp and preseason dress rehearsals, the real bullets will finally start flying when the Seattle Seahawks officially open the Mike Macdonald era with a Week 1 home clash coming up against the Denver Broncos on September 8.
While Macdonald arrived in the Pacific Northwest as a first-time head coach at any level, he inherited a Seahawks squad with no shortage of talent that just missed the postseason with nine wins in 2023. In particular, with an established Pro Bowl quarterback in Geno Smith back under center ready to distribute the football in a new offensive scheme coordinated by Ryan Grubb, the franchise has a surplus of playmakers at the skill positions returning, leading to high expectations for lighting up scoreboards once again.
Can Seattle's offense live up to the hype? Here are five bold predictions heading into the start of a new season in the Emerald City:
Prediction 1: Geno Smith will throw a career-high 35 touchdown passes.
Only two years ago, Smith took the NFL by unexpected storm throwing a career-best 30 touchdown passes, but that total may look pedestrian down the line with the veteran pocket passer landing in a perfect offense for his strengths dialed up by Grubb. Already possessing a lightning quick release and one of the best deep balls in the game, those traits should play extremely well in Grubb’s aggressive downfield passing attack that caters well to pocket passers, while the play caller’s ability to scheme the ball out of his hands quickly should help negate the pass rush more than previous seasons and create easy opportunities to pad his completion percentage. But where this partnership should pay the biggest dividends will be in the red zone, where Grubb has consistently orchestrated potent offenses inside the opposing 20 with a knack for finishing with six points, giving Smith his best shot yet to tally touchdown tosses in bunches.
Prediction 2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, not DK Metcalf, will lead Seattle in receptions.
As evidenced in OTAs all the way through the preseason finale when he scored a 21-yard touchdown, Metcalf isn’t going anywhere as a go-to target for Smith and it’s possible he could make a run for his own franchise single season receiving yardage record in 2024. With that said, Metcalf has never necessarily been a volume target receiver, doing much of his damage courtesy of the explosive play as one of the league’s most dynamic deep threats. Considering the immense success Ja'Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan had in Grubb’s offense at Washington, Smith-Njigba should take the torch as Seattle’s target-devouring machine, creating problems for opposing opponents at all three levels and excelling as a weapon on intermediate/deep crossers. With his chemistry with Smith taken to another level this offseason, he has a chance to explode in year two and make an already potent passing arsenal even tougher to slow down.
Prediction 3: Noah Fant will find the end zone half a dozen times.
Acquired as part of the Russell Wilson trade two years ago, Fant hasn’t made the impact Seattle expected, at least statistically. The athletic field-stretching tight end endured a tough second season with the team, failing to score a single touchdown despite playing in all 17 games, but that didn’t stop the team from re-signing him in March. Going under the radar the past two years, Washington received quality contributions from tight ends as complementary weapons in Grubb’s offense, and Fant offers far more upside and overall talent than any of the tight ends who thrived in Montlake. Assuming Grubb makes utilizing the former first-round pick a priority in the red zone far more than his predecessor Shane Waldron, there should be ample opportunities to find the end zone with Metcalf, Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett drawing so much attention.
Prediction 4: Charles Cross will allow fewer than four sacks, earn All-Pro nod.
Since being selected in the top 10 in the 2022 NFL Draft, Cross has been a solid league average starter protecting Smith’s blind side, but he hasn’t taken the big leap forward that the franchise hoped he would, in part due to a toe injury that set him back last season. Teaming up with new line coach Scott Huff and benefiting from the veteran presence of new left guard Laken Tomlinson, however, the 23-year old has looked like a dramatically different player in training camp this time around, dominating in 1-on-1 drills as well as team sessions with a more polished all-around game, looking poised to make a junior jump towards becoming one of the NFC’s top tackles. As long as he avoids injury that befell him last year, under the tutelage of Huff and guidance of Tomlinson, the sky should continue to be the limit for an uber-talented tackle who has been on the cusp of a breakout.
Prediction 5: The Seahawks will rank in the upper half of the NFL in red zone and third down efficiency.
Despite all of the weapons Seattle had at Smith's disposal, in part due to injuries and inconsistent play up front, the Seahawks finished 17th in scoring offense after being a top-10 unit in 2022, suffering an unexpected drop off. At the center of these disappointing results that fell well short of expectations, few teams were worse at sustaining and finishing drives, as the team ranked 23rd in third down conversion rate, dead last in time of possession, and 26th in red zone touchdown rate. Luckily, with much of the same cast of talented characters returning, Grubb brings an extensive history of success building offenses that perform well situationally, including leading Washington to a first overall ranking in third down conversion rate at the FBS level in 2022. That track record coupled with Smith's ideal skill set for his offense, a pair of dynamic running backs, and an offensive line expected to at least be marginally better should bear far more fruit on third down and in the red zone, which could vault Seattle back into the top 10 in scoring in no time.
