The 6-7 Miami Dolphins will head into NRG Stadium with a lot on the line in a pivotal matchup against the 8-5 Houston Texans. Miami is in major need of a victory to keep their slim playoff hopes alive and need outstanding performances from skill position players to counter the Houston attack.
The Dolphins have been heating up offensively, thanks to the excellent play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Since his Week 8 return from injured reserve, the Miami offense has been stellar, ranking fifth in the NFL in points per game with 27.7, fifth in first downs per game, and seventh in third-down efficiency.
Since Week 8, Tagovailoa is leading the NFL in completions with 200, completion percentage at 76 percent, and passing yards with 1,973. With Tagovailoa playing MVP-caliber football, his targets have been benefiting. Players like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane will need to be featured to keep pace with the Texans, who are No. 11 in the NFL in scoring with 23.7 points per game.
If you’re looking to get in on the action this week with some player prop bets, we’ve got you covered with a handful of wagers to make on the Dolphins. The following prop bets are available on BetMGM, with the listed odds last updated at the time of publication.
De'Von Achane over 33.5 receiving yards (-110)
Achane has been a top end dual-threat running back for Miami. Heading into Week 15, he is one of only two players in the NFL with more than 600 rushing yards and 450 receiving yards, along with Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints.
With 63 receptions, he is just 13 away from breaking the Miami single-season record for a running back, held by Terry Kirby who had 75 in 1993. On the season, Achane is averaging 4.8 receptions and 36.5 yards per game, making this 33.5-yard prop very reachable.
Since Week 8, those averages have climbed to 5.7 receptions and 40 yards per game. He has hit at least 30 receiving yards in five of his last seven games, including his last two contests, netting 56 and 45 receiving yards, respectively.
The Texans have a potent pass-rush, second in the NFL in sacks, so short passes to Achane that allow him to work for yards after the catch could lead to plenty of receiving yards for him Sunday.
Tyreek Hill over 70.5 receiving yards (-120)
Hill started the season with a 100-plus yard performance and had to wait until last week for his second triple-digit day of the year. After a career-long touchdown draught during Tagovailoa’s absence due to injury, Hill has now scored four of his five touchdowns this season in the last five games.
Over the last four games, he has averaged seven catches and 76.8 yards a game and has three touchdowns in that span. While he’s hit the 70-yard mark just five times this season, he has done so in each of the last two games.
With the Texans having a formidable receiver duo of their own in Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Hill should be very busy all game as the Dolphins try to win the arms race. Houston has a top 10 passing defense, but a potentially high-scoring game could make this a track meet with plenty of yards through the air on both sides.
Jason Sanders over 1.5 field goals made (-130)
Sanders is coming off a season-high four field goal performance last week, including a game tying 52-yard kick to send Miami to overtime on its way to a win. He has hit his last 16 field goals and he’s 26-for-30 on the season for an 86.7 percentage. He has made the seventh most field goals in the league so far this season.
Since Week 8, Sanders has hit two or more kicks in all but one game. On the season, he has nine games where he has hit at least a pair. There have been just two games all season in which he has attempted just one kick.
Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 touchdown passes (-135)
Tagovailoa is playing too well to not ride the hot hand. He is the first player in NFL history to throw at least 40 passes with multiple touchdowns and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
He’s heading into this matchup on this tear, and Tagovailoa needs just a pair of scores against the Texans to hit this prop. Over the last six games, he has thrown 14 touchdowns. Tagovailoa has had multiple scoring passes in his last four games, and in five of his last six outings.
The Texans can score, so this game has shootout potential. Miami could very well face a late-game deficit against a quality opponent, and with odds favoring him hitting this mark at (-135), a pair of touchdown passes should happen for Tagovailoa in Houston.
Jaylen Waddle over 4.5 receptions (-110)
Waddle has had an off season statistically, but he’s come to life in recent weeks. Waddle has been on a tear in the last three weeks with 21 receptions for 296 yards since Week 11. He reeled in nine catches last week in an overtime win against the New York Jets and, two weeks ago, he caught eight passes.
Over the last five games, Waddle has averaged 6.8 targets and 5.2 receptions per game. With both teams capable of puting points on the board, Waddle will be needed early and often. He could even four or more catches by halftime in a matchup like this.
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