The Anaheim Ducks announced news on Thursday that the team had signed 25-year-old goaltender Lukas Dostal to a five-year contract worth $6.25 million annually. The move, deemed a smart one by the Ducks, has sparked immediate comparisons to Edmonton Oilers netminder Stuart Skinner. In particular, Edmonton Journal scribe Jim Matheson believes there might be a direct comparison in contracts.
Matheson writes:
“If RFA Dostal,25, gets 5 years at $6.25mAAV in Anaheim with 121 regular season games with career .902 save% and no playoff games what does Skinner,26, get after this season? He has 189 league games, .905 career save% and 50 playoff games and 2 trips to Cup Final?”
Most of the reactions to Matheson’s post express disagreement with his assertion. But it does raise an interesting question about whether to sign Skinner to an extension and what it would look like.
How to Compare Dostal and Skinner
Dostal has played just 121 NHL games with a .902 save percentage, but those numbers come behind one of the league’s weakest defensive units. Despite the environment, Dostal has quietly set franchise records for saves and starts, displaying a level of consistency that’s perhaps Skinner hasn’t demonstrated.
At the same time, Skinner has backstopped the Oilers to two straight Stanley Cup Final appearances, and has set some franchise records of his own along the way. The Oilers have been a much better team, but for some time, they were criticized for their failure to secure a really strong blue line corps. That changed this season.
Analysts argue that as Anaheim’s blue line improves, Dostal could emerge as one of the game’s premier netminders. Meanwhile, The Athletic recently pegged the Oilers in the 99th percentile of blue line groups in the NHL. They write, “Edmonton’s group is a strong mix of offensive mobility and defensive suppression throughout, led by Evan Bouchard — a no-doubt franchise defenseman. This is a huge position of strength, one that could be parlayed into fixing an area of need elsewhere.”
So, does that make Dostal exponentially better than Skinner?
Skinner’s Numbers Definitely Suggest He’s Due For a Significant Raise
Skinner’s 189-game résumé includes a .905 save percentage and tons of playoff action. That said, much of his success is credited to the elite support in front of him. Skinner’s playoff numbers (.893 save percentage in 50 games) raise concerns. It’s fair to suggest that could and should affect his next contract. However, the Ducks paid Dostal big money with no playoff experience at all. They have no idea how he’ll perform once the team gets into the postseason.
It is true that Dostal outperformed Skinner in raw save percentage last season. It’s also true that Anaheim’s lack of structure or standout defenders means Dostal is even better than those numbers. Does that mean Skinner is worth only a fraction of what Dostal just got paid? Probably not.
If Dostal can earn $6.25 million on potential, what is Skinner truly worth? That’s a tough thing to know. However, fans suggesting Skinner is “not in the same stratosphere” is showing their recency bias and not giving Skinner the credit he deserves.
With both goalies still developing. Skinner just has a lot more experience and with it brings instances where he didn’t fare as well as Oiler fans would have hoped. He’s not suddenly a terrible goalie, even if the suggestion that he should earn as much as Dostal is a potential stretch.
-1750036992-q80.webp "Six Thoughts on the Oilers Heading into Game 6 of Stanley Cup Final")
