Rome Odunze has not been overwhelmingly productive for the Chicago Bears, but he has also not been so quiet that he is being called a bust. He is in a unique spot for a former top-ten pick entering an offense with an established number-one wideout and a rookie quarterback. So, there is time for him to grow.
What are some notable stats to look into to see if Odunze can improve in the final 11 games?
3. Rome Odunze has produced a lot more against man than zone
So far this season, the Bears rookie wideout has been able to beat zone coverage. Caleb Williams is 12-20 when targeting Odunze against zone and they have 203 yards, which amounts to 1.5 yards per route run. Overall, that is actually the top mark of all of the receivers in YPRR. Cole Kmet is at 1.51, D’Andre Swift is at 1.54, D.J. Moore is at 1.29 and Keenan Allen sits down at 0.81.
There is plenty of room for optimism here. On the flip side, though, he has struggled against man coverage, with 0.26 yards per route run. Williams is just 2-6 when throwing his way against man coverage.
Moore is at 1.14 and Allen is at 1.63 when facing this coverage. To be fair, this is a limited sample size for Odunze, and it appears that the tracking data says that he is getting open on the plays when he is not being targeted. For whatever reason, Williams is just not looking his way as much.
Still, finding that Odunze is the most productive against zone and noting that while he is unproductive against man, he seems to be doing well against this coverage are both encouraging signs.
2. The Chicago Bears have not struck with Rome Odunze deep
The Bears are trying to get Rome Odunze open deep down the field, it simply is not happening. This has been an area that Williams has struggled in, regardless of who the receiver is. Williams has dialed up the deep ball to Odunze 10 times, and they have connected just twice.
There are 17 receivers in the NFL with at least nine targets deep down the field. He is tied for last in receptions, with the 14th most yards. His yards per route run is also 14th in the deep area of the field.
This hurts when you see that Brian Thomas Jr. has six catches deep down the field for 283. It is the best yards per route run of wideouts with at least nine targets downfield.
To be fair to Odunze, Tyreek Hill is currently 2-12 when being targeted deep, so this can be about the quarterback.
Odunze was at his best deep down the field in college. Williams is not targeting Odunze against man coverage, but he is giving Odunze these chances deep, so you know that he is seeing him open. It is simply not clicking.
1. Should the Chicago Bears work Rome Odunze out of the slot more?
A lot of the most efficient play from Odunze has come when he is working out of the slot. The Bears are 7-14 when throwing to Odunze when is in the slot. That has resulted in 118 yards, 1.55 yards per route run. Of all Bears receivers, he is the best in the slot so far this year.
Odunze is 10-15 when being targeted on the outside, but he is producing just 0.96 yards per route run in this area. Odunze is projected to be an outside wideout, but so far this year it is simply not as productive as his work in the slot.
Odunze has 79 slot snaps, but just a 33.5% slot rate. Meanwhile, Allen has 66 snaps in the slot, but he is in the slot on 52% of his routes run.
When the Bears traded for Allen, it was clear he was their slot receiver, and that is where he was often aligned with the Chargers. However, he is averaging 0.72 yards per route, which is less than half as much production on a per-route basis.
The Bears may want to try a slot fade to Odunze to get him going with some deep balls out of the slot. They also may want to shift Allen outside. If he is less productive, who cares, it is not like he excelled in the slot. The key is getting the most out of Odunze moving forward.
