“Let’s run it back.” If you’re anything like me (a pickup basketball aficionado who often loses), then this is a phrase you love to hear. Your team just lost, but since there’s no one else waiting to play, you get to stay on the court.
This phrase evokes a different feeling for many Miami Heat fans. After another offseason in which rival teams improved through external acquisition, the thought of “running it back” without major roster changes appalls much of Heat Nation.
I like to consider myself a glass half full type of person. Some may call it blind optimism. I call it guts.
With that said, there were developments last season that give legitimate reason to be optimistic about the Heat going forward.
Stars Need to be Stars
This comes with a caveat. I’m operating under the assumption that Jimmy Butler is still one of the best players in the world and that last year’s signs of regression can be attributed to the fatigue of back-to-back deep playoff runs.
Butler just had his longest offseason in a while, and by all accounts, he is coming into this season motivated.
Bam Adebayo, coming off a gold medal with Team USA, is a bonafide star in his own right.
It’s certainly not all doom and gloom when you have two players of this caliber. The Heat's struggle has been surrounding Butler and Adebayo with the right pieces, but looking back on the 2023-24 season, progress was made in this regard.
1. The Heat Found Something in Jovic
Throughout the Butler and Adebayo era in Miami, one of the most persistent questions has been who the third member of the starting frontcourt should be. In year five of this build, that question was finally answered: it’s Nikola Jovic.
It has been a struggle to find players who have a positive impact on both sides of the ball, but Jovic did exactly that in his second season. He was one of four players (Butler, Adebayo, and Kevin Love being the others) on the team to post a positive EPM (estimated plus-minus) on both offense and defense, per Dunks & Threes.
Surrounding Butler and Adebayo with legitimate floor spacers is vital to the Heat’s success, as both players operate primarily in the paint. As a team, the Heat had a sub-optimal shot distribution, and Jovic will do wonders for that.
He was a marksman from 3-point range, shooting 40% on the season. Most importantly, he was willing to take a lot of 3s, with 9.1 attempts per 100 possessions. Last season, with Jovic on the court, the Heat’s 3-point frequency went up nearly 3%(79th percentile), per Cleaning the Glass.
It was never a secret that the Heat needed to surround Butler and Adebayo with shooters, but finding ones who are also positives on defense has been extremely difficult.
At 6-foot-10, Jovic showed he can hold his own in the post. Basketball Index had him in the 78th percentile in post-defense last season, and he allowed 0.58 points per possession guarding post-ups, per NBA Stats.
Jovic will be spending a lot of time on the court with Adebayo, and his ability to guard opposing centers gives the Heat some much-needed versatility. Adebayo is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA but typically has to guard opposing bigs due to the Heat’s lack of size. Putting Adebayo on opposing wings more frequently could be a game-changer for the Heat’s defense.
Last season, when Jovic shared the court with Butler and Adebayo, the Heat posted a net rating of plus-11, with both offensive and defensive ratings well above league average, per Cleaning the Glass. Jovic’s development last season made an undeniable impact, and his seamless fit alongside Butler and Adebayo gives reason for optimism. I’m eager to see how the 21-year-old continues to grow.
2. Haywood Highsmith Showed Flashes of a Shooting Leap
I already mentioned the Heat’s struggle to find shooters who don’t hurt the team on defense. On the flip side, finding great defensive players who don’t kill the team’s spacing on offense has been equally difficult.
In other words, the Heat have a specialist problem. Haywood Highsmith is known as a defensive specialist, and rightfully so. Basketball Index ranks him in the 95th percentile in perimeter isolation defense, and it’s not just his ability to stay in front of guys. Highsmith is a playmaker on defense, using his disruptive hands to wreak havoc. He averaged more than two stocks(steals plus blocks) and three deflections per 75 possessions last season.
I’m hopeful this will be the year Highsmith graduates from specialist to two-way player.
He showed real signs of a shooting leap last season, shooting 40% on catch-and-shoot 3s. It’s also encouraging that more than half of his 3-point attempts were above the break, where he shot better than league average. Overall, Highsmith was in the 65th percentile in 3-point percentage.
The problem was his volume, at less than three attempts per game. Having the fortitude to keep letting it fly with confidence is the key to making defenses respect your jump shot, and if they don’t respect it, you’re hurting spacing.
Highsmith did show signs of growing confidence in his jumper, and he even hit some clutch threes without hesitation. If he can do this on a consistent basis, defenses will have no choice but to close out harder on him.
Elite point-of-attack and wing defenders who provide space for stars to operate are the ultimate ceiling raisers come playoff time. If Highsmith can truly be considered a threat from beyond the arc, then the Heat have an elite role player on their hands.
3. Tyler Herro Improved as a Pick-and-Roll Ball Handler
Shifting away from two-way role players, the Heat have also lacked consistent shot creation.
Tyler Herro had his most efficient season as a pick-and-roll ball handler this past year. According to NBA Stats, he was in the 77th percentile at 0.96 points per possession. This is a fairly significant jump, as he had never been higher than the 65th percentile, and he found himself above guys like Donovan Mitchell, James Harden and Anthony Edwards.
This can be partially attributed to his increased proficiency in the short midrange. Herro shot 49% last season, with 29% of his shots coming from this zone. Being someone who struggles to finish at the rim, this is a great shot for him to go to frequently.
The biggest grievance with Herro’s shot selection is his tendency to settle for midrange pull ups over 3-pointers. Last season, he took around eight pull ups per game, with over half coming from the midrange. He shot 37% on 3-point pull ups, so it would be wise to increase these attempts.
Herro has made real strides in creating out of the pick-and-roll. With a more optimal shot diet, he has a chance to be one of the more efficient pick-and-roll ball handlers in the league, and that could make life a lot easier for the Miami Heat.
