The Los Angeles Lakers were humbled in Game 1 of their first-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Despite getting a strong outing from Luka Doncic, the Lakers' defense couldn't hold down the Timberwolves, as Minnesota exploded for 21 made triples on 50 percent shooting from beyond the arc to take a 117-95 win on the road.
While Game 2 of the series isn't exactly must-win yet for the Lakers, they would want to avoid going down 2-0 before heading on the road. That typically is a death sentence in a seven-game series. But even with the Timberwolves getting a leg up over the Lakers to begin the series, Doncic and LeBron James, of all people, would know that overreacting to a single playoff game is a fool's move.
The Timberwolves' odds to advance to the next round of the playoffs may have increased following their Game 1 win, but there are positive signs for the Lakers faithful to hold on to as they look for their team to even up the series on Tuesday night.
With that said, here are three reasons as to why the Lakers will still take care of business against the Timberwolves despite their loss in Game 1.
Timberwolves should be hit hard by three-point shooting regression
In today's NBA, winning the mathematical battle is crucial to earn a victory. Getting more possessions or making more three-pointers is a surefire way to achieve success, and in Game 1, that's exactly what fueled the Timberwolves' victory over the Lakers.
Minnesota, as a team, was on fire from beyond the arc; as mentioned earlier, they went 21-42 from beyond the arc, which was always going to be difficult for the Lakers to match. The way the Lakers played defense did not help matters whatsoever; they helped off of three-point shooters despite being one pass away on the strong side, while loading up on the strong side to prevent drives opened up a ton of three-point looks for Minnesota.
The Timberwolves ranked fifth this past regular season in made threes per game, with 15.0, and they were fairly efficient in their attempts, ranking fourth in three-point percentage (37.7) on the year. Thus, a three-point explosion is no fluke, and this is why the series will not be an easy one whatsoever for the Lakers.
But three-point production tends to even out throughout the course of the series; for the Timberwolves to shoot their average percentage from three on the year in this series, they will have to go 10-42 from three in Game 2. When a team shoots 23.8 percent from three, that team typically loses.
Just to hammer home how likely it is for the Timberwolves to shoot more poorly in the coming games, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, and Naz Reid combined to shoot 25-36 from the field in Game 1, which is good for 69.4 percent. Those three shot a combined 47.4 percent this past regular season.
There is a possibility, in a sample of (at most) seven games, the Timberwolves simply shoot the lights out and knock the Lakers out of playoff contention. But the law of averages is a law for a reason, and the Lakers can at least trust that some regression will be coming in their favor.
