With an offensive coordinator under fire for a lack of season-long creativity and a kicker who probably needs to be replaced, the Washington Commanders are fading. Here are three reasons why the Commanders are in trouble after the shocking loss to the Cowboys.
First, let’s get real. The loss to the Cowboys didn’t qualify as shocking to any fan of the Washington franchise. It has been a long time since Commanders fans, deep down, expected the team to beat Dallas. Sure, they’ve had hope. But no longtime Commanders fan could claim shock over Sunday’s 34-26 loss.
Disappointment? Sure. Frustration? Sure. Here we go again. Sure.
But let’s dive into the reasons why the Commanders shouldn’t be shocked if they miss the playoffs in the 2024 NFL season.
Commanders roster isn’t built for playoffs
It’s not that Washington didn’t try. And it’s not that general manager Adam Peters isn’t building toward something good. The Commanders worked things fairly well, considering the nice start to the season. But the organization whiffed in terms of receivers.
In today’s NFL, quality wide receivers are a must for playoff teams. NFL playoff teams must have an Alpha receiver, and the Commanders don’t have that in Terry McLaurin. Alpha receivers don’t have the target share of McLaurin. Seven times this season, McLaurin has six or fewer targets. Compare that with a real Alpha: CeeDee Lamb of the Cowboys, whose target share hasn’t been below seven in any game this season. And Lamb has been in double digits for six straight games.
So McLaurin is a sub-alpha, and then the Commanders fall off the cliff. When Noah Brown is No. 2 on your team in wide receiver targets, you have a big-time roster issue. Despite having a big-time rookie star in Jayden Daniels, Adam Peters, and company gave him mediocre receivers in Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, and Luke McCaffrey. That’s a sad-sack group.
In other areas, the Commanders have improved. The offensive line play is better this season. The unit has protected Jayden Daniels fairly well. And the running back room is solid but unspectacular. The defense has improved, but it’s more about team play than talent. This showed up against Dallas as the Commanders couldn’t consistently stop the Cowboys’ weak ground game.
Looking at the roster overall, it’s not a failure by Peters. The team simply didn’t commit enough resources to the receiver position. This could have been remedied at the trade deadline. But the fact the Commanders didn’t go after a top receiver says one of two things. Either Peters convinced the organization it had enough talent at receiver to help the team reach the playoffs. Or Peters and the Commanders aren’t serious about reaching the playoffs this season because there’s no scenario where the current receiver room gives them a great chance to get there.
Kliff Kingsbury isn’t punching aggressively enough
Smiles and back pats carried the Commanders early in the season. It seemed like everything the Commanders' offensive coordinator dialed up worked almost to perfection. Daniels’ completion percentage shocked the NFL, but recent games have revealed the connections came as part of the approach that defensive coordinators have figured out.
There are three reasons the Commanders have no real deep threat in 2024. One is the receivers aren’t good enough or fast enough. The second reason is Kingsbury won’t call for the deep ball enough. And the third reason is Daniels, who seems to be more interested in protecting his low interception total than taking needed shots down the field.
With Daniels’ ability to avoid the pass rush and get out on the edge, he needs to have his eyes up and take a few big shots. Instead, he gets what he can or meekly runs out of bounds. The Commanders' offense is far too conservative in the passing game to create winning opportunities. The three-game losing streak is real, and even a 10-7 finish seems unlikely.
Unfortunately for Commanders fans, Quinn seems to be content in coddling Kingsbury instead of demanding excellence. Consider Quinn’s recent comments to Sports Illustrated.
“I've found out the competitor that he is and the detail that he wants to get to with the group,” Quinn said of Kingsbury. “And we've got, we think a lot more under the hood about where we can develop and how far we can take it.”
Let me interrupt this quote for a Commanders' public-service announcement. The Commanders DO NOT have a lot more under the hood. Now, back to your regularly scheduled quoting.
“And Kliff's a really big part of that,” Quinn said. “He's got incredibly high standards for the group. He's got a very creative mind.”
I’m sorry. It’s me again. Very creative mind? Then use it!
“So, to think that all of our playbook has been seen, you would be mistaken,” Quinn said. “So, that part of play, ‘Sometimes that one's not game ready yet, that's not game ready.’
QB Jayden Daniels needs a full year of seasoning
It has been an impressive season for the Commanders' rookie. But it hasn’t been one of ascending growth. Truth be told, if the growth had been ascending, he would be the best quarterback in the NFL right now. That’s because he got off to such a crazy-good start.
Instead, Daniels leveled off and then sunk a bit. Whether his late-game heroics against the Cowboys showed a sign of re-emergence or whether it can be viewed as a fluke remains to be seen. But it doesn’t look like Daniels will be able to provide the consistent high-level performances the Commanders would need from him to make the playoffs.
Perhaps no other category reveals his shortcomings than his 12-to-5 ratio for touchdowns to interceptions. It’s a good ratio, but having only 12 touchdown passes in 12 games does not put him in the superstar category. 18 NFL quarterbacks have more TD tosses than Daniels. This is an area he must improve to help the Commanders become more of a playoff threat.
