The Edmonton Oilers made the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2006 this past postseason. The Oilers rode a historic offensive attack to the brink of hockey’s biggest prize. This attack was led by the otherworldly performance from Connor McDavid this spring.
In the end, McDavid and Edmonton could not win the Stanley Cup. They lost to the Florida Panthers in seven games thanks to a second-period goal from Sam Reinhart in the deciding game. This loss extended the Stanley Cup drought of Canadian teams to 31 years.
The Oilers are certainly one of the best offensive teams in the NHL. This is a trend that is likely to continue during the 2024-25 season. Especially after the Oilers added offensive talent in NHL Free Agency. However, it won’t be the entire team taking a step forward in the year ahead.
How much of an impact regression will have on Edmonton remains to be seen. In saying this, it is inevitable that some players will take a step back. Here are two members of the Oilers roster who are in danger of regression in the year ahead.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could regress
Edmonton Oilers forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (93) awaits the puck drop against the Florida Panthers during the third period in game one of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena. Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
In 2022-23, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a career year. He surpassed the 30-goal mark for the first time and nearly scored 40. Additionally, he recorded 100+ points for the first time in his career. This performance was such an outlier, though, that regression was almost guaranteed.
True to expectation, he did take a massive step back offensively. Still, “Nuge” put up very respectable totals. The Edmonton star scored 18 goals and 67 points for his team during the regular season. In the playoffs, he added seven goals and 22 points in 25 games.
Analytically, Nugent-Hopkins didn’t overperform too much. He finished the season with 10.5 Offensive Goals Above Replacement, according to Evolving Hockey. Additionally, he ended the year with a respectable 1.6 WAR. These totals are higher than his xOGAR (7.6) and his xWAR (1.2).
Regression does not come in one specific form. The word is negative in nature, but regression does not automatically mean a player will fall off a cliff. Nugent-Hopkins could certainly take another step back, but he should still be a very useful player on the ice. He could very well help the Oilers make another deep playoff run during the 2025 postseason even with regression in mind.
Corey Perry is one to watch
The Oilers signed Corey Perry midseason after his rather publicized exit from the Chicago Blackhawks. Perry is far from the player he used to be when he starred with the Anaheim Ducks. However, he has shown to be some sort of a good luck charm. Before the 2023-24 season, Perry had played in three of the last four Stanley Cup Final matchups.
Perry continued this trend in 2023-24, as Edmonton made the Stanley Cup Final this year. He scored eight goals and 15 points in 38 games in the regular season for Edmonton. This works out to a 32-game pace over 82 games. In the playoffs, he added one goal and three points in 19 contests.
These totals may not make the veteran forward look like a regression candidate. However, his analytics offer a bit more insight. Perry finished the season with 5.3 Goals Above Replacement and a 0.9 WAR, according to Evolving Hockey. His expected totals are well below the par, though. He had an xGAR of 1.4 and an xWAR of 0.2 in 2023-24.
Perry certainly can provide value as a bottom-six forward in the NHL. However, he is in the back end of his career and only has one year remaining on his contract. The veteran forward is likely to take a step back statistically in 2024-25. And this could impact his ability to chase an elusive Stanley Cup.
