Edmonton finished the first half of the season with the eighth-best record in the NHL after 41 games (or fewer, in the case of Dallas and Los Angeles). The Western Conference is home to seven of the top-nine teams in the NHL at the midway point of the season.
Through a team’s first 41 games or fewer, the top teams are Vegas (28-10-3), Washington (27-10-4), Winnipeg (27-12-2), Minnesota (26-11-4), LA (23-10-5), Dallas (26-13-1), Toronto (26-13-2), Edmonton (25-13-3) and Colorado (25-15-1). I’d argue finishing first in either the Central or Pacific division will be a bigger advantage than most years, and finishing first in the West means you get the second Wildcard team, which will be one of Vancouver, Calgary, St. Louis or Utah. All those teams are a tier below the top seven in the West.
Today the standings look like this in the Western Conference.
Edmonton is six points behind Vegas with 41 games to go. LA is eight behind Vegas, but they have three games in hand. The races in both divisions should be awesome, and first place might be decided by which team makes the most impactful trade leading up to the trade deadline.
Here are 10 questions about the team and individuals for the second half.
1. Will Leon Draisaitl score 60 goals for the first time in his career?
Draisaitl leads the NHL with 31 goals in 41 games. It is the second time he’s reached the midway point of the season with 31 goals. In 2022, he finished with 55 goals. Draisaitl has been on a tear lately, with 18 goals in his last 22 games. Six of those goals have come on the power play after he started the season with only one PP goal in the first 19 games. In five seasons from 2020-2024, Draisaitl led the NHL with 108 PP goals. Sam Reinhart was second with 74. He’s been the most dangerous PP scorer in the league for five seasons. He’s currently tied for 16th place with seven this year. His PP production has picked up over the past 18 games and because I expect that to continue, I believe he will reach 60 for the first time.
Draisaitl killed it at 5×5 and even strength in the first half. He leads the NHL with 15 goals and 31 points at 5×5 and he leads the league with 24 EV goals. His career best in EV goals is 31 (2019), 30 (2022) and 27 (2020 in 71 GP). He already has 24 and should set a new career high in EV goals. Only six players have scored 40+ EV goals in a season in the salary cap era. Auston Matthews did it twice (51 in 2024 and 44 in 2022), Steven Stamkos (48 in 2012), Alex Ovechkin (43 in 2008), David Pastrnak (43 in 2023), Mikko Rantanen (42 in 2023) and Nathan MacKinnon (41 in 2024). Draisaitl is on pace to join them.
2. Can Darnell Nurse continue his strong play?
Nurse was the Oilers’ best defender in the first half. He had the lowest GA/60 and he was on the ice for 10 fewer goals than Mattias Ekholm and 11 fewer than Evan Bouchard. Last season from November 11th to until the All-star break (Feb 4th), Nurse played very well. However, after he returned from the All-Star break, he struggled down the stretch and into the playoffs. He battled a nagging injury, but even putting that aside, he didn’t play as well as he’d like. The Oilers need him to continue his strong play in the second half. He’s capable of doing it.
Since November 1st Nurse has the sixth-lowest GA/60 in the NHL among D-men (300+min) at 1.81 and he’s 10th in GF% at 61.9%. He’s played at a high level for much of the first half and if that continues the Oilers’ odds of winning improve.
3. Will Evander Kane return before the end of the regular season?
Kane had surgery on his knee yesterday. It wasn’t anything structural according to Kane. “I had an e-scope done yesterday. It kind of popped up a few weeks after my abdominal surgery and after getting it looked at, we discovered they needed to remove something from knee. It should be a quick recovery. This should only delay my other rehab for a short time,” said Kane.
Kane expects to be able to continue his abdominal rehab along with his knee rehab in a few weeks. “When I do come back, I am confident I can be the player I was,” said Kane. “Last year it was painful just skating. It will be great to skate pain free. My focus is being 100% when I come back, and I’m focused on that more than what date I will return.”
The NHL trade deadline is eight weeks from today. If the Oilers know Kane won’t return in the regular season, they will have loads of cap space to use, if they want it, as Kane could be placed be in LTIR. Essentially it would be most of Kane’s $5.125m salary plus anything they accrue up to the deadline. Today’s announcement suggests to me Kane’s chances of playing in the regular season are much lower.
4. Will the Oilers look for a scoring left winger?
Vasily Podkolzin has shown he is very responsible defensively. He’s physical, he can penalty kill and he’s a good forechecker. But he only has four goals, and he’s spent over 70%of his 5×5 TOI with Draisaitl and/or McDavid. They need a bit more production from him. He could pop at any point and look like a 15-18 goal scorer. I won’t be surprised, but if it doesn’t happen in the next eight weeks, do they look to add another scoring left winger?
5. Can Jeff Skinner contribute more?
Jeff Skinner has played 48 minutes with McDavid and 58 with Draisaitl, along with six minutes with both of them. So only 112 of his 469 minutes at 5×5 have been with the Oilers’ top centres. Skinner’s style doesn’t seem like a fit with Draisaitl, as Draisaitl benefits from having a good forechecking winger, while McDavid needs a left winger who moves the puck to him quickly. Skinner likes handling the puck, but I’ve seen him try to change his game. It isn’t easy, especially in his 15th season, but I wonder if we see him get a chance in the top six in the coming months. I’d be very surprised if Skinner agreed to a trade, unless it was to another playoff team. He’s never made the playoffs. He wants to play there and that’s why he asked for the NMC. Skinner has always been a productive 5×5 player, and he and Adam Henrique have played well together recently, so maybe we see more of that duo.
Despite limited minutes in the top two lines, Skinner still produced the fifth-most goals among Oilers forwards in the first half. He has more finishing skill than every winger except Zach Hyman. Will he get another look in the top six or will he find a home on the third line?
6. Will the Oilers add a LD or a RD?
The Oilers will add a defencemen before the trade deadline. Will it be a RD who can play second pair minutes or a LD who plays third pair, while Brett Kulak plays with Nurse? There aren’t many second-pair RD available, which makes acquiring another lefty more likely. They might add a lefty who can play the right side and have him and Kulak rotate like Troy Stecher and Kulak have in the past. Stecher has been very solid for the Oilers. He’s highly competitive, and if he is their number seven, they are in a good spot, as he can play either side effectively.
7. When will Noah Philp get a look?
It is not a matter of if, but when. Edmonton has 14 games before the 4 Nations Face-Off break. They return from the break on February 22nd, only 13 days before the trade deadline. The prudent move would be to give Philp a long look prior to the break. I could see him getting recalled before or during the Oilers’ six-game home stand that starts on January 21st. They have a mix of playoff teams — Washington, Vancouver and Toronto — and non-playoff teams in Buffalo, Detroit and Seattle. They could see how he fares against good teams, while also having a few easier matchups that could allow him to build confidence.
Edmonton needs a fourth line centre. Preferably a right shot, and Philp checks a lot of boxes with his right shot, speed and his 6’3″ frame. He is a smart player, and they will need to see can he make decisions quick enough and consistently enough to be a reliable option down the stretch and into the playoffs.
8. Will McDavid and Draisaitl be first teammates in 19 years to each win the Art Ross and Richard trophy?
Joe Thornton won the Art Ross in 2006 while Johathan Cheechoo led the league in goals with 56. They were teammates in San Jose for 58 games after Thornton was acquired from Boston. Technically, they were teammates who won the award. But if you want teammates who played together all season, the only time that has happened in the last 50 years was in 2003 when Peter Forsberg won the Art Ross and Milan Hejduk won the Maurice Richard.
It is rare for teammates to win both. Draisaitl could win both himself. He leads Brayden Point and Mikko Rantanen by six goals, while he’s second in league scoring, seven points behind Nathan MacKinnon. Draisaitl has two games in hand on MacKinnon. McDavid trails MacKinnon by 10 points, and overcoming that deficit won’t be easy, but I can’t rule it out.
Draisaitl will have the rest advantage over McDavid, Point, Rantanen and MacKinnon as all four are playing in the 4 Nations, while Germany isn’t involved. That might be the difference. Draisaitl could join McDavid (2023), Alex Ovechkin (2008) and Jarome Iginla (2002) as the only players this century to win lead the league in goals and points in the same season.
9. When will Evan Bouchard score a PP goal?
Claims he and Draisaitl are only PP merchants (which was idiotic to begin with) sure have quieted down. But it is odd to see Bouchard with a 0 in the PP goal column. Bouchard is tied for fourth in EV points among defensemen and he’s seventh overall in points. He isn’t having nearly as awful of a season as some people suggest. He just isn’t killing it like he did last season, and that was to be expected. I said all summer it would be difficult to match 82 points and then another 32 points in the playoffs. It was an amazing season.
Bouchard isn’t an all-around elite defenseman. Very few are, and I’m perplexed by the outrage by some regarding his play. Stop expecting him to be what he isn’t, and you will enjoy watching the games more. Bouchard can play better, especially with the puck, than he has in the first half. And I expect he will. But I’m most curious about when he will tickle the twine on the PP. Any guesses?
10. Will the Oilers finish first in the Pacific Division?
With so many quality teams in the West division, I believe it would be a huge benefit to finish ahead of Vegas and LA. The Oilers are only six points back. It isn’t a massive hole, but it won’t be easy to track down the Golden Knights, and don’t rule out the Kings. Edmonton plays LA next Monday, but then they don’t face either team until April. They play in Vegas on April 1st and in LA on the 5th, and host the Kings April 14th in game #81.
Edmonton has not finished first in its division since 1987. They haven’t had home ice advantage in the second round of the playoffs since 1991. We’ve seen how important home ice is later in the playoffs, and especially in the Stanley Cup final. It might be the difference on which team gets to the Conference final out of the Pacific division.
